Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 09-23-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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Through the prior close... Monday night's 33-35 point plunge had consolidated just under 1938.00, whose break would put into play 1918.00. Gapping down under it Tuesday didn't extend down immediately, but eventually, finally testing 1918.00 as the afternoon's bias environment began. The balance of the afternoon firmed to 1924.50, and then surged to 1935.00, to within 1 point of the open's highs. The session's close was flat with its gap down despite having trended down intraday. Overnight action's new info... Initially dipping to 1924.50 had bounced optimistically into China's PMI, which disappointed. Its reaction plunged 20 points to 2010.50. So, why was this night different from all other nights? (Okay, wrong holiday.) Because rather than extend the plunge, Europe's opens were greeted by a bounce back up to 1924.50. And a brief bobble there was resolved up through Tuesday's highs to 1939.00. That's being consolidated back down to 1932.00. If, then... It's tough to label as "resilient" a market that is down sharply in a week to fresh two-week lows. But Tuesday's gap down netted nothing for its effort, and now last night's plunge has been reversed. Reversing a plunge does suggest that bearish fundamentals have become overly-discounted. Even with today's exodus of many participants thinning volume, early strength could retrace much of Monday night's plunge fast, too. Meanwhile, lower lows and lower highs still define a downtrend. And a lot of energy has been expended just to test 1938.00 resistance. So, the recovery attempt will be very sorry if not rallying at the open. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1941.25 would likely trigger the 1938.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1931.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Trying to fluctuate away from unchanged. This morning's first several minutes ranged around 1930.75. A dip to 1926.00 was recovered enough and in time to overlap 1930.75 at 10:00. It was still being overlapped at 10:15. That's a relevant level since it was yesterday's opening print and its cash session close equivalent. And three of the first hour's five 15-miute checkpoints overlapped it. Which signals that this market does not want to trend. Still, being a no-bias environment, there's room to fluctuate between its 1924.00 and 1938.25 bias signals. The upper-end is being tested now. It's too late to trigger, so exceeding the bias-up right now would be "no-bias trending" that must be retraced. Otherwise, back under 1937.00 and 1935.00 would start to reverse momentum down, presumably targeting the range's lower-end, potentially to 1922.50.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1941.00 1929.75 ...would target  1946.25  1935.00 Bias-down: under  1933.00 1921.75 ...would target  1927.75  1916.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

No Island, but a lot of traversing. Having touched the 1938.25 bias-up signal, back under 1937.00 and 1935.00 reversed momentum down. The morning's 1924.00 bias-down signal wasn't yet touched when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, so its eventual test wasn't required to hold. Its test has extended down to 1921.75. Not rallying quickly at the open meant today was likely to back-and-fill into yesterday's range. Its lower prior highs have been tested (they're still being tested). There's no lower objective, but breaking lower now would be likely to probe under yesterday's low. Otherwise, this being the range's lower-end, bouncing back to or toward yesterday's highs is now likely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Wednesday's bounce obviously didn't fulfill Monday's confirmed breakout which now requires at least an eventual third lower close under Tuesday's low. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Gapping up Wednesday peaked upon testing the decline's bounce limit, only ranging sideways intraday, and unlikely to resume the rally without another dip first. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Flat-to-narrow ranging Wednesday increased the likelihood for at least a slightly lower low testing 14.65. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday's "ineffectually optimistic" retest of resistance above 156-00 was retraced Wednesday down to 154-22, which is still short of the gap back down to 153.24 but still confirms resistance isn't ready to break higher. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Wednesday's EIA report kept price under pressure attacking 44.50, and certainly not resuming or extending the rally. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Initially dipping at Wednesday's open extended the narrow sideways ranging at the lows without signaling any rally soon.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1945.00 1933.75 ...would target  1950.25  1939.00 Bias-down: under  1933.00  1921.75 ...would target 1927.75  1916.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

[Click here for the morning Bias Parameters] The only opportunity for Wednesday to trend was late-afternoon. But that window least resembled trending, compared to the other wide intraday swings. Essentially being an inside day and having gained no traction, Wednesday's session didn't offer any clues going forward. Nothing prevents Thursday's open from trying to resolve down, but recovering intraday from a lower probe could be very bullish into and out of the weekend. Not recovering from probing lower could be quite the opposite.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyffrs

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