Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 12-30-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's open was greeted at the upper-end of an overnight range that had been resisted by 2247.00. A brief overnight low had neutralized the attraction below at 2243.00. The open popped up to touch 2250.00. Holding its test through the opening 15 minutes of volatility made the 2248.75 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger. Trending back down into the noon hour probed fresh lows down to 2239.50. That held a test of the afternoon's 2240.50 bias-down signal, and avoided discovering whether there is an air pocket any lower. The afternoon bias environment attacked its 2247.00 bias-up signal, and the balance of the session ranged sideways. No more "unfinished business below" remains outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Only firming back to unchanged didn't reverse momentum up. That hasn't prevented overnight action from trending up. A probe above yesterday morning's 2250.00 high by nearly 3 points eventually retraced to attack 2248.00 through Europe's opens. But price is otherwise ranging narrowly around 2250.00. If, then... The last unfinished below was neutralized yesterday, but price only returned to unchanged. That's not momentum reversing up. Now overnight action has firmed further, and the open is currently indicated to gap up to yesterday's high. That's not momentum reversing up, either. Avoiding another downleg today will require recovering yesterday's high through the open, or at least triggering bias-up. The reward could be a 5-7 point air pocket above to 2255.00-2257.00. The alternative could resume the decline, and discover an air pocket below to 2230.00, on the way to 2215.00. There are unusual influences at year-end, unrelated to volume evaporating ahead of the holiday weekend, and unrelated to the normal Friday Factors. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2250.00 would be likely to trigger the 2248.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2245.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Steep opening drop to fresh lows. Two key points from yesterday's close and today's open had a similar message: Last night's rally was the wrong way to reverse the trend, like yesterday afternoon's rally only to unchanged was the wrong way to reverse momentum. Neither one was reliable for extending higher Friday morning. That faux bullishness didn't prevent last night's rally. But the addition of last night's rally only steepened the consequences of not actually extending higher post-open. In fact, the overnight pivotal uptrending support described during the Market Tour was broken immediately after the open probed only 1 point above the 2248.00 bias-up signal. And it was broken hard. The 2241.25 bias-down signal was touched to within 1 tick during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The first hour extended down further to 2236.75, triggering bias-down, and putting into play the 2235.25 bias-down target. The next lower target is 2230.00-2232.00, despite an air pocket under ~2241.00 not having materialized. Back above 2240.00 (being tested now) could launch a corrective bounce, essentially targeting 2243.00. But no more than a corrective bounce is likely today.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2249.50 2244.75 ...would target  2254.75  2250.00 Bias-down: under  2242.00  2237.25 ...would target 2236.75  2232.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Extending the decline. This morning's dip wasn't recognizing an air pocket. Instead, there was potential for a corrective bounce above 2239.50 targeting 2242.75. The target was met, and retested, and then the correction ended. The entire bounce was retraced back down to its 2236.75 origin during the noon hour. Fresh lows extended down to fulfill "unfinished business below" at this morning's 2235.25 bias-down target. Once again, there is no unfinished business below. Not at this moment. The 2237.25 bias-down signal is being overlapped at the 1:20 bias timing window, which invokes the grace period. Back under it at 1:30, and preferably also at fresh lows to compensate for the delay, would target 2232.00 and lower. Not triggering bias-down could establish a floor for the day, so the balance of the session could drift flat-to-higher.

Happy New Year's! Whether it was a warning or a promise, it came true: The year's last trading day was worth sticking around for. Unlike other three-day weekends, there's business to be done, right up to the bitter end. The session's decline didn't find an air pocket. But selling pressure was relentless, anyway. And it trended, in a series of lower lower lows and lower highs. Starting at the morning's 2248.00 bias-up signal, with its sites set 2230.00-2232.00, the target was met, even exceeded by more than 1 point. Its upper-end was still being tested at the cash session close, and then higher to 2237.25 into the futures close. Any "unfinished business below" that was neutralized Friday was also put into play Friday. So, once again there is no unfinished business below. And once again, that need not prevent trending down deeper anyway. Attractions below at 2215.00 and potentially 2205.00 could be met as the week/month/year begins. Gapping open above 2239.00 would all but reject the late drop, and reverse momentum up. Sellers did gain traction Friday -- the bias environment was exited under the noon hour's low, and the final hour was entered lower -- so gapping up would be bullish. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

REMINDER: There is no Saturday Review this weekend due to the holiday. Please have a safe and happy New Year's celebration!