Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 10-26-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's open back under Monday's highs had isolated the overnight probe of fresh highs, which had fulfilled the 2150.00 objective. Retesting Monday's 2140.50 low bounced high enough for long enough to avoid triggering bias-down. But its upside objective was ignored as the reversal down extended to enter the noon hour at the morning's 2135.50 bias-down target. Bounces twice tested 2140.50 as resistance, and twice failed, again attacking 2135.50 into the close, making at least an obligatory probe lower likely. An offsetting test of the morning's 2148.00 bias-up signal was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Anxiousness ahead of AAPL's post-close earnings is somewhat responsible for containing Tuesday afternoon's range. Its negative reaction garnered sympathy as fresh lows developed quickly down to the 2132.00 area. Another downleg began at Europe's opens in sympathy with Italian bank Monte Paschi resuming its slide. Fresh lows attacking 2126.25 have reacted up to test 2130.00. If, then... Tuesday's open produced two normally powerful signals that happened to contradict each other. If they neutralized each other's influence intraday, once seems to be winning out overnight. Isolating Monday night's test of the 2150.00 objective has now reacted down almost 24 points. The decline's timing has had weak-handed sponsorship at least twice -- first, after yesterday's open had held tests of prior lows, and now overnight. The overnight influence is legitimately bearish, but may be discounted sufficiently to prevent getting much more sympathy from intraday participants. Attracting sponsorship for a recovery need not be obvious immediately, but the overnight lows must hold to avoid probing well under expiration Friday's 2123.25 low. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2127.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2121.25. Exiting the open under 2130.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2133.50 bias-down signal at 1015. Exiting the open above 2133.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Gap down ultimately holds, eventually reacts. Opening at the 2127.75 bias-down target and testing the 2126.25 overnight low was recovered up to 2130.50 on news. Its reaction down to a fresh low was recovered enough to hold 2127.75, and to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.

Not renewing the bias-down signal is the only bullish element of this morning's open. And that's not a very bullish element.

Ranging narrowed around 2127.75 into 10:30. Surging AFTER that has tested the 2133.50 bias-down signal by 1 point. It's too late to trigger, to invoke the grace period, or even to invalidate the bias-down. When tested, the bias-down signal should define the range's upper-end until the bias environment is at least within 10-15 minutes of lapsing at 11:30. Currently, the 2133.50 test is holding. Probing above it could suffer the additional consequence retesting the 2129.00 10:15 print. The decline can resume anytime and be credible. A credible recovery should wait until coming within view of the bias environment lapsing.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2147.75 2141.50 ...would target  2153.50  2147.50 Bias-down: under  2138.50 2132.50 ...would target  2134.00  2127.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Pullback holding support. This morning's late rally above 2127.75 was resisted initially at the 2133.50 bias-down signal. Being resistance during a bias-down environment didn't prevent probing above it to 2140.00. But probing above the bias-down signal during a bias-down environment required at least retesting 2133.50 as support. 2140.00 happens to be natural resistance. It is a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back up to yesterday's pre-open 2150.00 test. Overbought RSIs that formed at 2140.00 require its eventual retest. That's possible at any time since its reaction down just fulfilled the minimum downside objective by testing 2133.50. Trying to retest this morning's high would get every benefit of the doubt for trying to resume the rally. There is resistance above at 2145.75, unfinished business at 2148.00, and then a likelihood of probing yesterday's 2150.00 pre-open high. Until rallying, there is currently potential for extending the noon hour's pullback through 2133.50. This morning's 10:15 print at 2127.75 could be tested, regardless of the resolution.

Wednesday's last half-hour sat there stunned, ranging choppily around its 2132.50 bias-down signal and 2134.25 bias timing print. This was neither a reward nor a consequence to bouncing off of the 2127.25 afternoon low, which was no-bias trending. The only unfinished business is above at the morning's 2140.00 high, and its test would likely extend significantly higher. Otherwise, probing under Wednesday afternoon's low could trigger a domino effect that leads to probing under 2118.00 and lower. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2144.00 2138.00 ...would target  2149.00  2143.00 Bias-down: under  2135.75  2129.75 ...would target 2128.50  2122.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.