Reliable Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 01-15-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Wednesday''s close had only attacked the afternoon short-squeeze''s minimum objective above 2007.00. Buyers nevertheless gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour''s high, joined by the 3:10-3:20 window trending to fresh session highs. Oversold RSIs at the session''s 1981.25 low were left outstanding.

Overnight action''s new info...
Wild swings are stepping it up. First, post-close action quickly fulfilled 2007.00''s probe, up to its likely target of piercing 2010.00. Ranging narrowly there through midnight surged to test 2027.00. Then half of the post-close 10-point gain was retraced into Europe''s opens, and a consolidation resolved down by plunging to 1986.00 (Swiss Franc cap removed). A 25-point reaction up has been retraced and recovered again.

If, then...
The players have changed, but the game remains the same. Overnight developments are reminiscent of the October 1987 decision to stop defending the Dollar vs. Mark,  triggering the Black Monday crash. Last night''s Swiss decision shocked the market, which was in the process of rewarding Wednesday''s buyers for their efforts. A lot. None of which matters if Thursday''s open maintains a gap under yesterday afternoon''s prior relative lows. If the open has absorbed and recovered from the overnight dip, then new highs probably wouldn''t be far behind. The trend is otherwise down.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2003.25-2004.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1998.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2007.00 would be likely at least to test the 2010.25 bias-up signal.

Better order extra Dramamine. This has no reason to stop.

The pre-open recovery back up to 2018.00 was impressive, but also irrelevant. Yesterday afternoon''s buyers gained traction. They would be robbed of it by exiting the open back under a prior low.

Which they did.

The open''s blip-up to 2016.00 was reversed all the way to (within 1 tick of) the 1991.00 bias-down target. That would have been put into play by rejecting tests of both the 2010.25 and 2015.50 bias-up parameters through 10:15.  The target was fulfilled at 10:00.

1-minute RSI diverged positively there, while 3-minute RSI tried avoiding oversold altogether. The reaction up triggered a buy signal above 1996.75 that extended back up to the 2010.25 bias-up signal. 

This being a no-bias environment, the 1998.50-2010.25 bias signals should contain its price action. Already having tested both, an offsetting test of either isn''t required. During the bias environment.

But the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30.

And since yesterday afternoon''s buyers failed to maintain their traction through the open, rallies are likely to fail. The market is much more vulnerable to probing the morning''s low. That rule applies to these factors as much for a 25-point trading range as for a 10-point trading range.

P.S. New session lows are still 10 points lower. Likely to be retested, and not required to hold. Somehow exiting the bias environment at fresh session highs is pretty much the only bullish scenario.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2010.75
2004.00
...would target 2016.00
2009.25
Bias-down: under 1997.75
1991.00
...would target 1989.75
1983.00
Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The overnight spike down in reaction to the Swiss Franc fell to 1.1575. Its bounce through 1.1755 couldn''t prevent the requirement for retesting the low, probably down to 1.1525

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The Swiss news helped save a top-heavy pattern by triggering a gap up to the next higher target at 1254.00. Extending higher intraday held 1267.00 resistance, which must be exceeded through Friday''s close to confirm a test of 1287.50 is in-play. Not confirming wouldn''t necessarily be bearish.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding its 16.95 pullback limit Wednesday was rewarded only by retesting Tuesday''s 17.20 high -- nothing near the Gold behavior -- further suggesting fresh lows are needed sooner rather than later.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight dip to 148-11 was saved by the Swiss news, triggering a probe of 4 ticks above Wednesday''s 150-10 high. Back under 149-12 would start to signal the rally''s momentum was lapsing, and back under 148-23 would signal momentum reversing down. Extending higher would otherwise target 151-08 and potentially 151-28.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight surge to 51.25 was retraced intraday by a couple of legs that ultimately failed to hold 47.45 as support. But probes nevertheless chipped away at the upper-end of the prior consolidation that had been supported by 47.45. Its recovery, confirmed above 48.65, would still signal a new upleg underway.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher through 3.29 by more than a nickel didn''t prevent reversing down intraday to test 3.07 support. Support held, but more backing-and-filling remains likely before a durable upleg can trigger.