Reliable Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 03-18-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday''s gap down under Monday afternoon''s low had triggered a "session-long decline." Every timing with one exception was likely to probe under the prior timing window''s low, which the morning fulfilled down to 2056.25. But following the noon hour''s likely exception, no other timing probed lower. However, probes above both bias-up signals up to 2070.50 were delayed or rejected before being able to gain upside traction that could invert or invalidate the session-long decline signal. A late dip through the close fell to 2064.00.

Overnight action''s new info...
Continually firming through the night eventually touched 2070.00, but that was the end of that. The three hours since then have slid relentlessly. Yesterday''s low was attacked to within 3 ticks at 2057.00. My expectations for a wild afternoon are being validated.

If, then...
Invalidating yesterday''s session-long decline setup would have made probing under yesterday''s low unlikely. Not invalidating it allowed fresh lows to remain possible, but still not required. The setup''s most relevant influence is its context, which gapping up today would have killed. The open is still some time off, but gapping down to yesterday''s low is currently indicated, so the question is whether this morning will compensate for the delay in fulfilling yesterday''s bearish signal. Gapping down might avoid extending lower as volatility becomes paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of this afternoon''s FOMC events. But unless the open is already the drop is credible for extending to 2053.25-2054.00 or to 2048.00-2048.75 before paralysis sets in.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2063.50-2064.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2060.25 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2058.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Impatient buyers seem to be betting on a "patient" FOMC.

The pre-open hovering just 3 ticks above yesterday''s 2056.25 low reflected optimism. It was repeated post-open. A blip-down into the top of the hour pierced a fresh low down to 2055.75. And then blipped right back up.

More optimism.

From a contrarian perspective, all of that optimism is potentially bearish. It went on to prevent a clean trigger of this morning''s 2060.25 bias-down signal at 10:15, which was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. It''s still being overlapped while printing post-open highs up to 2062.00. 

Color me skeptical.

The more that it''s fought, especially without yet rallying decisively above 2060.25, the likelier for the FOMC reaction to be down. Sharply. And this is even if the FOMC remains "patient."

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2070.00
2061.50
...would target 2075.75
2067.25
Bias-down: under 2062.50
2054.00
...would target 2057.25
2048.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday''s low had filled the gap down to Monday''s close, neutralizing its attraction. But the upside never triggered momentum extending higher above 1.0650. The reaction to Wednesday''s FOMC took care of that, surging to attack the 1.0855 target.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday''s close was above 1148.00, but still short of the 1154.00 buy signal. That didn''t prevent the FOMC reaction from surging sharply to 1172.50. Its reaction down tested 1161.00, which must hold to maintain the reversal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Early weakness Wednesday still avoided probing under last week''s low, holding above Thursday''s gap that had been filled already. The FOMC reaction surged above the past week''s highs up to 16.00 and put into play a test of 16.30 so long as 15.65 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for a pullback down to 161-00 was tested to within a quarter-point prior to Wednesday afternoon''s FOMC news. The reaction surged to fresh highs at 163-01, now needing to hols 162-14 as support to maintain the rally''s momentum targeting 164-25.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight extended into Wednesday''s session down to within a nickel of 42.00.. Narrow ranging reacted up sharply to within a nickel of 45.00 in reaction to the FOMC news. That tested the 44.30 buy signal, which would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday, and meanwhile suspicious.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday''s first close above the 2.84 confirmation could have tested 2.77 support, but instead extended higher already to fresh relative highs at 2.94. Impatient optimism behind the improvement does keep the door open to a negative knee-jerk reaction down. But consecutive higher closes above resistance suggests that Thursday''s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, which would be likely to recover and resume the rally.

. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2105.75
2097.75
...would target 2111.25
2103.25
Bias-down: under 2095.75
2087.75
...would target 2089.75
2081.75
Signal status:LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET
FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.