Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... A relatively wide, 3-day range around 2951.00 had narrowed throughout. Last Thursday's gap up failed to attract strong-handed buyers to extend the rally, so eventually a deeper pullback was needed to find sponsorship at lower levels. The likely objective was "lower prior highs" at 2932.00-2933.00, and its tests during Tuesday's noon hour included room for noise down to 2926.50. But a 12-point reaction up was only temporary, and still resolved down to fresh lows at 2920.00. Overnight action's new info... It wasn't immediate, but Globex soon probed yet another fresh low at 2917.50. Except for touching support at the 2917.75 bias-down signal, the break seemed otherwise arbitrary. Its blip-down snapped back up into a 5-point range around Tuesday's 2922.00 close that persisted through midnight and through Europe's opens. The range was broken 2-3 hours ago by a 1-hour 15-point surge that has been consolidating up to 2939.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Several times yesterday I referenced the Fibonacci scheme that was overlaying the break lower. Its projections coincided with "lower prior highs" at 2932.00-2933.00, room for noise down to 2926.50, and then a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of a prior range at 2920.00. The last level was not optimal for a low, because it coincided with "prior lows," which is rarely durable on a retest. So, the question is whether the overnight dip has allowed a durable low to form. Its steep reaction up to 2939.00 seems like a good start, but it could also be a good finish. That's yesterday afternoon's high, so after trending down into the close, gapping up above it could form a "session-long rally." But bothering to test it without extending through it could be as bearish as its break would have been bullish. Triggering the setup would target a retest of last week's highs and probably resume the rally targeting almost 3000.00. Otherwise, the next lower objective is the gap-to-gap fill at 2902.00-2906.50, and then 2896.00-2898.00, still only as a correction that can resume the rally. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2934.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2933.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2929.00 at 9:45 would be likely at least to trigger the 2927.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Rubber band stretched, and snapping back down. The overnight rally up to yesterday afternoon's 2939.0 high was retraced significantly before the open. The 2927.25 bias-up signal held its test as support, reacting up through a post-open bounce attacking 2937.00. But not a prior high, let alone yesterday afternoon's high. A "session-long rally" setup was not longer in-play. But probing back above the 2933.00 bias-up target reinstated its potential recovery through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Whoops, not so fast... reversing down steeply took that bullish setup out of play, too. Essentially, at least making it more difficult. But the reversal down reacted up from touching the 2927.25 bias-up signal, which could still trigger at 10:15 to reinstate the bias-up signal's test. Oops. The reversal extended down to 2924.50 and triggered a clean no-bias.

No-bias after rejecting BOTH bias-up parameters puts into play offsetting tests of BOTH bias-down parameters. That's 2927.75 low and 2911.75. Which would be likely to extend down to 2902.50-2906.00 if not also 2896.00-2898.00.

Recovering the bias-down signal through 10:30 could have rejected the bias objectives. In fact, the 2927.25 bias-up signal was being tested AT 10:30, but not recovered. In fact, it was soon probed up to 2931.50, but in a counter-trend sponsorship, so it reacted back down to the bias-up signal's support.

Currently, the 2927.25 bias-up signal is still holding as support. Back above 2930.75 (being tested now) would suggest a bigger bounce underway, albeit also doomed -- unless the bias environment is exited back above the bias-up target's original 2936.75 test. Resuming the decline could make a very ugly afternoon.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2927.00 2931.50 ...would target 2933.00 2937.50 Bias-down: under 2916.50 2921.25 ...would target 2910.25 2915.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still absorbing this morning's failed surges. The overnight surge up to 2939.00 had retraced to within 1-2 points of the surge's 2925.25 origin. Surging again through the open attacked the pre-open surge's peak, and was retraced to probe 1 point under the original surge's 2925.25 origin down to 2924.25. The surge's failures put into play tests of 2917.75 and 2911.75, but apparently the market was too tired to trend. Rather than attack its objectives below, sideways ranging developed through the noon hour. Neither of this afternoon's bias signals was even touched. Actually, the sideways range's lower-end was just probed down to this afternoon's 2921.25 bias-down signal. This is already a no-bias environment, so its test should define the window's lower-end. And its test is still holding 20 minutes later. Of course, that won't need to continue defining the lower-end in a half-hour when the bias environment begins lapsing...

Tuesday night's surge up to 2939.00 was just enough to threaten a "session-long rally." But it wasn't maintained to the open, let alone through it. And the earlier overnight range's 2925.25 upper-end was retraced before the open, twice, including a post-open surge's failure. Both bias-up parameters were rejected, putting into play offsetting tests of both 2917.75 and 2911.75 bias-down parameters. The attractions below didn't prevent sideways ranging into the afternoon's bias environment. Eventually breaking lower did fulfill the initial 2917.75 objective, which the close retested after an interim bounce. The 2911.75 objective was left outstanding, with potential below it down to 2902.50-2906.00 and 2896.00-2898.00. Alternatively, trending down into the close would allow a gap up Thursday above Wednesday's 2927.00-2931.00 highs to form a "session-long rally" setup. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2920.00 2924.50 ...would target 2936.25 2930.75 Bias-down: under 2910.75 2915.50 ...would target 2905.25 2910.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.