Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's second consecutive gap up was a Tuesday's second consecutive failed gap up. Rather than extend higher, the open reacted down. Holding a test of the 2473.00 bias-up signal put into play an offsetting test of the 2465.00 bias-down signal, which was avoided by 3 points at the morning bias environment's 2468.00 low. Bouncing back into the noon hour held 2474.00, which held the afternoon's relatively narrow range ahead of post-close AAPL earnings. Overnight action's new info... 2-3 points were added immediately in sympathy with AAPL and NQ's more substantial earnings reaction. Ranging narrowly sideways between 2473.50-2475.50 has persisted overnight. This morning's earnings announcements have contained plenty of beats, which might be responsible for a blip up that pierced the range's upper-end. But only a little and only momentarily, which might be responsible for reacting down sharply to pierce the overnight range's lower-end. If, then... Yesterday afternoon's narrow range had become likely to resolve down, and there's "unfinished business below." Now there's a catalyst or two to leverage those influences -- disappointment in not reacting more bullishly to earnings news and to AAPL's earnings reaction. Tuesday morning's selling began earlier than Monday and lasted longer. The pattern suggests that sellers will be given a path down if the open isn't already rallying through prior highs. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2473.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2476.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2478.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2470.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2468.75 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it's time for Wednesday's morning market tour not very interesting overnight is it was and it was a very interesting this afternoon I'm plenty of tests of the 7350 I can't even say test that requires a minimum three tix let alone probing that three tick if there were one three Tech overlap higher than its first three minutes just to ticks and one tick after the close when it was less relevant of relevant at all 7350 was recovered why reaction to Apple's earnings and I don't have a comment on this because this was not greeted from a position of strength so it's pretty interesting that it reacted up occasionally it happens but the pattern didn't suggest that there is that there is a durable rally coming from earnings so this may be shaking get through 160 160 25 I can have more confidence in that but meanwhile could be a near-term top at least for backing and filling is that an influence on the broader Market you know I've always said earnings ornt her name's even though the market is ultimately and often pretty quickly dismissive of geopolitical stuff you know there can be a very big reaction to Russia moving its troops across Ukrainian border or to it but that's usually a big by opportunity because it doesn't have to do with her name's at the same time earnings reactions in stocks the actual reaction to earnings doesn't have a lasting effect on often no effect on indexes it's just the overall earnings of opposite ends of the spectrum having either temporary or limited effect end of the spectrum this is that limited effect side of the spectrum on Apple because I mean unless you're unless you've got Apple in your index like and Qs do which did pretty well on the news now at 6180 retracement little bit piercing that just a little bit of Thursday's plunge doesn't really matter didn't really matter to us overnight little blip up or nominal surge back to 7575 50 which it already been tested pre-open yesterday for a second consecutive Gap up to the 75 area that failed to extend it we got kind of a pattern Monday's Gap up to the open it wasn't until that Master lasting longer not preventing a gap up though we've got some Ascension here so long as that's preserved and the upper end of the range is broken that's an ascending triangle and there's potential to extend higher is the likelihood of extending higher if that's broken in the right way which means at the right time which means that the open because buyers did not gain traction for the reference yesterday not to mention the unfinished business left at standing below and by the way all of this testing of resistance it all requires one thing of the Market's going to Rally this morning it's going to like yesterday I'm just going to repeat what I said yesterday when I said before Monday is open let some before Monday is open as before yesterday's open this morning's open hashtag app up above prize has to run through the open or it's not credible that was one thing they gave us Insight early into yesterday's Gap up failing likely to fail that it wasn't immediately extending higher so similarly this morning even though there's strength overnight and it held up to a degree didn't extend and it's not even a short of greeting this morning's open with a gap that might not even occur we may be lower it's early there's still time at least couple hours before they open not so much ATP report shortly but it's not an inflection point it's possible to touch 71 or provender 71 just doing that would indicate that buyers or week just doing that would indicate that selling strength is growing but just doing that doesn't require breaking down immediately and other words if that Gap back USA's closes left outstanding by gapping down this morning by probing under the 71 this morning there's still potential for bouncing back to fill that Gap what we know though is it would be filled from a position of weakness if that Gap were filled from avoiding 71 72 in today well that could extend higher but if there's any Post open for rent on a tree or under 71 that then recovers which is perfectly capable of doing despite indicating that 61 has to be tested eventually next just recovering from under 71 to fill that Gap says it'll hold the Gap will hold and resume reverse that is down let me know if that needs any clarification it's a pretty important concept for a gold right now silver meanwhile has no requirement to Trend higher Not Without Really probing above but yapping about 1685 there's no unfinished business of theirs basically Rising support in here that's broken read tested back under 1660 which is being tested overnight and this was a big weird bar no idea what that chart room before they open good luck today .

More hovering post-open finally capitulates. Yesterday afternoon's narrow ranging had become likely to resolve down. The shallow overnight gain in sympathy to AAPL's earnings reaction wasn't greeted any more enthusiastically post-open. Hovering soon became dipping, and dipping has become collapse. Yesterday afternoon's 2471.75 sell signal that never triggered was supportive when touched during the first half-hour. Its 3-point bounce's failure didn't find support until testing the 2468.75 bias-down signal. And then only briefly as the reaction has extended down to 2466.00. The bias-down signal wasn't even touched by 10:15, triggering no-bias. But probing under it is NOT "no-bias trending," because the probe originated before 10:30 and was maintained. This morning is an "invalidated no-bias" environment. The bias-down signal is NOT required to define the window's lower-end. 1-minute RSI just diverged positively on a retest of the low, while 3-minute RSI left oversold territory. It's not a buy signal, but vulnerable to a bounce. And it comes 1 tick short of being within 3 ticks of yesterday morning's 2465.00 objective, which would have neutralized its "unfinished business below." The burden of proof is still on buyers.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2475.50 2472.50 ...would target  2480.75 2478.00 Bias-down: under  2467.75 2465.00 ...would target  2461.50  2458.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's deep drop consolidating. Breaking under this morning's 2468.75 bias-down signal between 10:15-10:30 managed to invalidate the no-bias signal that had been triggered. Extending down to 2363.50 was recovered to probe 1 point above 2468.75 before noon. But reacting down 4 points has settled in for an afternoon no-bias environment. Exiting the bias environment back under 2465.00 would likely resume the decline and probably at least test 2458.50. Almost any lower than that -- or just closing under 2362.75 -- would complete the Head & Shoulders topping pattern we've been traction. Otherwise, rallying this afternoon could help to invalidate the Head & Shoulders in favor of fresh highs. Only closing positive today would be bullish, but the groundwork could be laid.

Buyers gained traction for their efforts Wednesday. Exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour's high and then entering the final hour even higher is combined to signal that Thursday morning will trend higher. With two caveats. The signal could have been invalidated by trending back down through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Thursday's open could be greeted by a reversal signal like gapping down under the afternoon's 2466.00 low (which would also form a "session-long decline" setup). The first exception didn't happen, but the second setup might. Wednesday morning's post-open slide was the third consecutive. Pavlovian conditioning would suggest the market is anticipating a fourth post-open slide on Thursday. That makes the prior timing windows vulnerable to sliding. It didn't happen late Wednesday, leaving it to the overnight. Avoiding an overnight drop would be likelier to absorb a morning dip, at least retracing it to unchanged if not also reversing it to an afternoon rally. Gapping up isn't necessary to rallying tomorrow, but it's the likeliest defense against the overnight downside risk. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2478.25 2475.25 ...would target  2484.00  2481.25 Bias-down: under  2470.50  2467.75 ...would target  2464.50  2461.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.