Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Still not rallying Monday would be likely to break deeply, if not also launch a new downleg. That entire break wasn't any likelier to be substantial immediately. But Monday's gap down slid sharply from the open's 3420.00 high, down to the decline's substantial target at 3356.00. Its reaction ultimately probed the noon hour highs up to 3398.50. Only oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's late surge has since ranged flat-to-higher. Blipping-up to test 3408.00 at Europe's opens was soon reversed back down to 3392.50. But only to range around yesterday's late surge, which just probed the earlier surge up to 3410.00. By the way, all of this strength is developing despite the U.S. Senate now being adjourned for two weeks, meaning no stimulus vote before then. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Current strength is impressive, if not yet successful, considering it has continued through definitive news that a stimulus vote's near-term hopes are dead. The evaporating time limit had made deal headlines increasingly bearish, while making bullish headlines increasingly ignored. Now it's official, for now. So, like a child learning to ride a bicycle without its training wheels, and defying gravity for just one block, firming overnight could produce the confidence that enables coasting much further. Of course, like that same child coasting into a parked car, near-term sentiment can suddenly reverse at resistance. Gravity sucks (literally: notice we're not floating off into space every other day). The 3407.75 bias-up signal's calculable resistance is being tested, but the nearest structural resistance is higher prior lows at 3421.00 and then 3428.00. A post-open downdraft remains vulnerable to retesting yesterday's 3356.00 low. That unfinished business could be left outstanding, but its retest could extend down to 3333.00 and 3322.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3411.00 would be likely to trigger the 3407.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3393.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Parked car. My analogy to first riding a bike without training wheels could have gone either way. It didn't go the way of gaining confidence, or gaining ground. Flat-to-higher ranging found that 3410.00 was a parked car, and the resulting gravity greeted the open back down at 3397.00. The first hour's attack on the 3387.00 bias-down signal also overlapped another relevant level at 3 of the first 15-minute checkpoints. This forms the Dry cleaners morning setup to suggest trending is unlikely or its attempts are frustrating (i.e. better off running errands). This was consistent with my pre-open comments that opening at the overnight range's midpoint would be difficult to launch trending. All of which pretty well defines price action so far. Probing under the bias-down signal attacked 3381.00, but came too late to invoke the grace period and recovered just enough to avoid invaliding no-bias. And since the 3387.00 bias-down signal was only attacked when it mattered, an offsetting test of the 3407.75 bias-up signal is not in-play. As the bias environment lapses into the noon hour, a more substantial attempt at trending can develop. Earlier listed potential objectives in either direction remain intact.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3403.00 signal would target 3412.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3384.25 signal would target 3374.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3411.25 3403.00 ...would target 3420.75 3412.50 Bias-down: under 3392.25 3384.25 ...would target 3382.00 3374.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Dry cleaners morning, meet dry cleaners afternoon. The morning's probes under the bias-down signal tested and retested 3382.00, while bouncing to attack 3397.00 and 3401.00. The noon hour's range was narrower, barely probing under the morning's bias-down signal down, and now retesting earlier highs. Earlier post-open highs. None of the overnight highs has been touched as the post-open sideways range persists into the afternoon. Now another bias-down has triggered, again without first touching either signal. Their 3384.25-3403.00 range should define that end of the window if tested. High-profile post-close earnings inhibiting price action isn't likely since a predominance of upside surprises hasn't prevented the market from trending down. Trending attempted in either direction as the bias environment starts lapsing would be credible for extending in that direction, perhaps even overnight to compensate for the delay.

Flat-to-higher ranging overnight up to 3410.00 seemed to ignore the "finality" of no stimulus package being possible during the next two weeks. But reacting down through the bias timing window extended to attack 3381.00. And then stopped. Greeting the open at the overnight midpoint had already warned of inertia, which a Dry cleaners morning setup soon confirmed. Two no-bias signals accompanied choppy sideways ranging back up to 3401.00, and then later back down to the earlier low. A post-close dip attacked 3376.00. Perhaps stimulus headlines have been the market's only ongoing catalyst. The good news of their uncertainty going into hibernation could actually be bad news if no organic catalyst fills its void. Initially eking higher overnight had that potential, but now an entire session has failed to attract stronger-handed buyers. This all but requires looking for that sponsorship at lower levels, like back down at Monday's low. There's nothing new about oversold RSIs at Monday's 3356.00 low requiring a retest. Beyond the room for noise, fresh lows could target 3333.00 and 3322.00. Meanwhile, trending down into Tuesday's close allows gapping up above the afternoon high Wednesday to form a session-long rally setup. Along with Tuesday's downside attractions, its upside potentialities remain intact at 3421.00 higher prior lows and a pivotal 3328.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3391.75 signal would target 3402.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3374.75 signal would target 3363.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3400.00 3391.75 ...would target 3410.75 3402.50 Bias-down: under 3382.75 3374.75 ...would target 3371.00 3363.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE