Stock Market Trade Signals - 04-24-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The WedEX signal's bearish influence began Friday afternoon. That didn't prevent the morning trending down from 2352.00 to 2345.00. Its last gasp was reversed down suddenly at noon, extending through the noon hour to touch the afternoon's 2340.75 bias-down target. The bearish WedEX influence didn't prevent a favorable knee-jerk reaction to headlines on tax reform plans to be released within days. But the noon hour entry wasn't recovered, keeping the afternoon flat-to-lower. Overnight action's new info... French election results precipitated Sunday night's open gapping up 20 points to test 2366.00 and extend to attack 2373.00. Consolidating down to test 2365.00 had recovered into Europe's opens. Fresh highs a couple of hours later have attacked 2377.00. If, then... Friday's low originated at obligatory support, triggered by an artificial catalyst. The burden of proof was left on buyers. They seem to have delivered, at least for the purpose of avoiding an immediate collapse. That collapse was necessary to end the decline constructively, which isn't being accomplished by leaving another gap outstanding. Meanwhile, a corrective bounce would find resistance at 2375.00 (discussed during this weekend's Saturday Review), which is now being tested. Suddenly by gapping up, just as the WedEX's bearish influence is scheduled to resume. And we're assuming WedEX was mildly influential Friday afternoon, so its influence Monday morning should be aggressive. Trending back down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would help to confirm, or at least not trending any higher than the open. Otherwise, the morning will be vulnerable to trending up throughout. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Bias parameters derived from recent patterns are far removed from this morning's open.

Overnight rally not extending. A pre-open pullback made it cheaper for the open to try duplicating the overnight rally. No takers. Reacting down from attacking 2377.00 had dipped under 2370.00 before the open, and extended to attack 2367.00 through the open. Ultimately, the opening 15 minutes of volatility only ranged narrowly at that post-open low. Bouncing momentarily to 2372.00 didn't attract buyers, either. That's not the second instance, but the third -- including Europe's opens. Bias-up triggered easily, since its signals are calculated from patterns that developed far below today's action. But the bias environment still reflects timing. And if the bearish WedEX will be influential this morning, then this is the time for it. It's too late for the signal to invert, so either it's influential or invalid. Back above 2373.00 would start to signal the latter. Not necessarily that momentum has reversed up, but that reversing down was no longer reliable. Otherwise, the bias-up environment can be retraced to its 2350.00 bias signal.  

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2375.00 2371.50 ...would target  2380.50  2377.25 Bias-down: under  2367.50  2364.25 ...would target 2361.00  2357.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Gap up still inhibiting sponsorship. This morning's post-open bounce up to 2372.00 was eventually reversed to probe under the open's 2367.25 low. By 6 ticks. The effort persisted through the bias environment lapsing, which fulfills the bearish WedEX's minimum requirement. But its influence on Monday morning wasn't aggressive, which is likely when Friday afternoon's influence is muted. Regardless, its influence has lapsed, and now price action is subject to other influences only.

The afternoon bias isn't stepping into that role. It just triggered no-bias, without testing either signal, but attacking the 2371.50 bias-up. Probing any higher before the bias environment begins lapsing in an hour would be doomed to failure.

No-bias trending would be doomed, but it could meanwhile extend to test the 2375.00-2377.00 overnight highs. No such test is required, and resolving down remains possible.

Was the bearish WedEX's influence mild? Post-open action and the balance of the morning trended down. The bias environment began lapsing at session lows. But it was only 6 points under the morning's high, which doesn't seem very aggressive. Of course, its sellers faced quite a headwind. Gapping up 20 points Sunday night and extending another 11 points higher. A lot of post-open buying was likely absorbed. Regardless, the overnight rally neither inverted nor invalidated WedEX. And its influence lapsed by noon. Price action since that moment trended up 8 points to 2374.00, probing the morning's high. But the opportunity to gain traction wasn't exploited. Despite exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high, neither the final hour entry nor the proxy window trended higher. And that's despite probing higher in the interim. So, the big question is whether the 3-week old 2375.00 prior high will hold its test as resistance. It may yet be probed Tuesday morning. Or later, after a little deeper dip. Or, Sunday night's test is all the retest it will get. In any case, closing above 2375.00 would be bullish, if not also being confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. And it may be the minimum requirement to avoid dipping to "lower prior highs" at 2348.00 and 2344.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2378.00 2374.25 ...would target  2384.00  2380.25 Bias-down: under  2369.00  2365.75 ...would target 2363.25  2360.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.