Stock Market Trade Signals - 06-01-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's pre-open rally had extended from 2410.50 to attack 2417.00. But the open gapped up only to the 2315.00 prior highs, which wasn't maintained, let alone extended. The alternative path was to plunge through Tuesday's test of 2408.50, which had been thoroughly chipped away. So, the first half-hour slid to 2402.75. Stopping optimistically short of last Wednesday's close sufficed to end the morning's selling. Consolidating into the final hour surged to 2410.50 at the cash session's close, and to 2415.00 through the futures close. Overnight action's new info... The post-close surge above 2410.50 wasn't retraced immediately, but it was retraced eventually at Asia's opens. And then it was recovered. Recovered, not for the purpose of extending Wednesday's late rally, but to attack its late highs up to 2414.50. So, except for that one dip, overnight action has held a narrow 2-1/2 point range -- and certainly not trended. Not, yet. If, then... Yesterday needed the rubber band stretched overnight to be the catalyst for snapping back down through the open. That's helpful in launching a downleg. No rubber band is needed for resuming that downleg this morning, since yesterday's fresh low wasn't recovered back above a prior high. So, unless gapping up above prior highs at 2415.00-2417.00, the pattern remains vulnerable to collapsing back into the downleg targeting "lower prior highs" at 2399.00. This morning's econ calendar is busy -- including the influential ADP report -- ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2417.75 would be likely to trigger the 2416.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2413.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2410.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2408.00 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome its June Thursday Thursday June one time for the morning Market or holiday-shortened week and so this is as usual the second the last day of the week but it's only the third day of the week just got over the hump yesterday and some hump we got overlooked it at the pre open Action really the overnight action ahead of yesterday's open had rained very nearly and only a couple hours before they open at the low or a lift off of some sort or attempt Bennett been tried or a tribe an attempted depending on your perspective so it got out to the point that the open really had no excuse not to Gap up above the prior sessions High which was the minimum requirement and then some sub requirements following that maintaining it extending it that would have had the opposite effect of what did happen which was not maintaining not extending collapsed and that's what we expected it collapse not just to the priorities low but through it because it had been sufficiently took the way yesterday or the prior day and week in fact and it was broke and didn't Trend an Consolidated at or under what was being tested previously at 24850 which in the bigger picture is last Thursday's Gap up 2408 50 the opening print that is always going to be natural support resistance little over used in this case the dip got just as low as it could for only a short as it could be before or before touching a lower Pryor High and bouncing notice that touch the lower Pryor High and bounced that 24850 would want to be if there had been no bounce if the drop it extended to 2399 which is still targeting From Below because otherwise the end of the day what influence on the price action ATP is reliable for getting a reaction price reaction so maybe we do greet thee open gapping up if it doesn't start pretty soon if it hasn't already started it is kind of late to suddenly get new sponsorship in here to clear that distance and to sustain I mean this is what happens when it's too late or what can happen that breakout attempt from a relatively narrow range pretty late and pretty and complete so same thing here only yesterday remember needed that Catalyst of stretching the rubber band to snap back down for that pattern we don't need that Catalyst today this pattern doesn't require stretching the rubber band before snapping back down I'm going to snap back down before collapsing and collapses entirely possible coming out of the open keep that in mind we do have Post open and reports as well that are reliably influential the price action PMI Manufacturing Index at 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing Index at 10 those two are typically reliable for influencing price action construction spending also coming out at 10 not reliable but for influencing price action but coming out simultaneously to the is M perhaps so if we don't Gap up it doesn't mean that we're going to collapse it just means we're likely to collapse at least very vulnerable to it and it is possible to and immediately we knew it was going to retest The Falls breakouts High and the objective for that would be 77 - 7825 yeah it got within or two dimes yesterday of that 77 objective and it's already were tracing back down to 6740 so back under that false breakout High not yet under the upper end of that triangle whose break would confirm the false break is done and momentum has a verse down but we got a proxy and just dipping under 6 925-6952 specially closing under it suggests the rubber band has been stretched and here's the issue is that with leave outstanding a gap back to yesterday's clothes that wants to be filled so prefer to see that filled first otherwise we're probably just looking at a corrective dip the correction can be pretty substantial as it is but prefer for patterned which other night so that tells me pawsitive knee-jerk reaction probably briefly though if it does any questions please .

Gap up's reaction doesn't collapse. Yesterday's pre-open rally had served to stretch the rubber band for post-open action to snap back down. Gapping up to and through prior highs would have trended up, but not extending higher only collapsed. Today's gap up to prior highs had touched the 2416.50 bias-up signal 1 minute before the open. Its reaction down to 2412.75 was retraced entirely, and probed the bias-up signal by 1 point. The test held again, despite this morning's econ reports disagreeing with yesterday's, which had been the catalyst to its collapse. Now, too late to trigger, the 2416.50 bias-up signal has been touched, and not recovered through 10:30. Which doesn't undermine that an offsetting test of the 2408.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Back under 2413.50 would start to signal that leg underway. Resuming the decline would also mean fresh lows targeting a test of "lower prior highs" at 2399.00. Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report will inhibit trending attempts more extensive than that, whether up or down. Rallying first, anyway -- with only yesterday's brief dip behind it -- isn't likely to extend, either.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2421.50 2420.50 ...would target  2427.25  2426.50 Bias-down: under  2415.25  2414.50 ...would target 2409.00  2408.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour rally, target nearly met. This morning's 2416.50 bias-up signal held through 10:15 to avoid triggering, which put into play an offsetting test of its 2408.00 bias-down signal. Never happened. In fact, the opening 15 minutes 2412.75 low was never touched again. 2416.50 still defined the bias environment's upper-end. Until it started lapsing. Then a breakout compensated for its delay. Another 2 points were added between the noon hour exit to 2425.50, and the afternoon bias environment entry at 1:30. It has improved to within 3 ticks of the 2426.50 bias-up target. Reversing down immediately is possible. This pattern's top remains vulnerable if not also likely to appear abrupt in retrospect. That turn could take a little more time to develop than this, but it's not required. Meanwhile, closing today above 2424.25 (and confirmed tomorrow) would signal a much bigger rally leg underway -- despite the recent narrow range not forming an optimal base.

Thursday's late breakout left outstanding unfinished business below at 2408.00. Extending higher fulfilled the next higher objective above 2415.00 which had been defining the past week's ranging. Probing intraday above 2424.25 was still being tested as support through the entire afternoon's bias environment and final hour. That is, until the position-squaring window, which momentarily probed the room for noise at 2428.00 by 10 ticks. Confirming the close on Friday would put into play substantially higher objectives. The afternoon's ranging up to the afternoon's 2426.50 bias-up target wasn't an optimal or decisive break above 2424.25, not until the final minutes that surged aggressively. And optimistically ahead of payrolls. So, closing higher again for confirmation would be helpful -- not for the next objective's setup, but for being a new trend high close on a Friday. There's otherwise no intraday timing required for actually trending back down, but trending back down is the likely bearish setup, and not just avoiding confirmation above 2424.25. The impending pre-open Employee Situation report was an excellent opportunity for cautious backing-and-filling. Instead, the report is being greeted optimistically, and vulnerable to a knee-jerk reaction down or to rejecting a knee-jerk reaction up. Regardless, a top won't be indicated without closing back within the past week's range. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2431.50  2430.50 ...would target  2436.75  2435.75 Bias-down: under  2423.50 2422.50 ...would target  2418.00  2417.00 Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.