Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... A multi-session Ascending Triangle had broken sharply higher Tuesday. A very last-minute surge began testing the lower-end of the 2819.50-2823.00 likely bounce objective. Overnight action tested its upper end by 1 point. probing above Tuesday's intraday range. Greeting Wednesday's open back under the 2813.25 earlier Globex low formed a Globex-flip setup that is bearish for the morning. Which it was, producing a 30-point drop to 2783.25. A bounce into the bias environment's exit attacked 2819.50, which reacted down to 2800.00 and ranged choppily sideways through the close. Any higher would have triggered a domino effect next targeting 2838.00. Any lower could have launched a retest of session lows, where oversold RSIs require an eventual retest. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday afternoon's choppy range ended by bouncing back toward session highs, through the 2812.00 cash session close up to 2816.00. Globex immediately dipped back down to and through 2812.00 on the way to Wednesday afternoon's 2800.00 low. Firming into and out of Europe's opens recovered to test and retest 2812.00, which has so far held, and is now reacting down to 2804.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The Ascending Triangle pattern's breakout Tuesday was likely false. So, the question remains, from where does it fail. Probably not from 2819.50-2823.00, which defined Wednesday's highs. Not unless this morning's open launches a downleg that extends under Wednesday's lows without delay, which isn't currently indicated. Gapping up or down -- either above 2819.50 or under 2793.00, respectively -- is also not indicated, but it would trigger WedEX by proxy. It's possible for this morning to remain range bound, so we'll take seriously any failed early attempt at trendnig. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2803.00 would be likely to trigger the 2808.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2811.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2819.50 would be likely to trigger the 2817.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

After avoiding it all night, support breaks through the open. Overnight lows repeatedly stopped short of touching or breaking under yesterday afternoon's 2799.50 bias environment low. Probing under it post-open wasn't required. But probing under it post-open could form a session-long decline, since Wednesday's close had trended up. More so, a bearish WedEX could form by proxy, since yesterday was essentially an Inside Day. The open did slide back under yesterday afternoon's low, and not by a little, down to 2792.00. Its reaction attacked 2802.00, which is also resistance at this morning's 2801.50 bias-down target. The bounce failed, and fresh lows have attacked 2791.00.

So, this is a session-long decline, with each timing window but one likely to probe its prior timing window's low. WedEX has triggered bearish by proxy. And it's a renewed bias-down environment.

Back above 2800.75 could extend into a corrective bounce up to 2806.00. It's being probed now. Bounces are otherwise likely to fail, inflection points are likely to react down, and support tests are likely to fail. Back under 2798.00 would signal the decline had resumed.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2779.50 2781.00 ...would target 2787.50 2789.00 Bias-down: under 2764.25 2766.00 ...would target 2759.00 2760.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

FB, SLD, B-D, and more. False Break. Tuesday's breakout from the Ascending Triangle above 2778.00 was likely to be a false break. It likelier objective at 2819.50-2823.00 held multiple retests through yesterday. An interim dip yesterday morning had stopped optimistically short of touching the Triangle's upper-end. But now today's 60-point drop is probing back into the Triangle down to 2756.50. Session-long decline. Price action into yesterday's close had bounced, and the afternoon's low had printed during the bias environment. So, gapping down to and/or through that prior low formed a "session-long decline." The setup essentially says that all but one timing window will probe its prior timing window's low. That exception is usually the noon hour, as it is today. The final hour should still probe under the afternoon bias environment's low. Bias-down. The least influential, since its 2760.75 bias-down target is already met. And it's being probed, which doesn't contradict this being a bias-down environment. Having said that, exiting the bias environment above or below its already-met target would offer extra confirmation to the decline's durability today. Another ugly day tomorrow would be the closest analog to a 1987-style crash setup that we've seen in quite awhile. Not that a bounce Friday wouldn't still be vulnerable, but extending down sharply Friday should attract more reinforcements than counter-trend sponsorship.

Thursday's gap down formed a "session-long decline" at the open, one of the most productive ever. Every intraday timing window except the noon hour probed its prior timing window's low. Until the final hour, which only ranged relatively narrowly sideways. That second timing window's exception isn't common, but it's not unusual. The next session then tends to compensate for the missing fresh low by gapping down under the prior session's lows. That would confirm both the session-long decline, and the Ascending Triangle's false break. Oversold RSIs at Thursday's low would be neutralized, and oversold RSIs at the Triangle's low would be in-play. Thursday morning's gap down also served as proxy to trigger a bearish WedEX. Its influence would be relevant Friday afternoon. Uh-oh...

Friday is October 19, which is the anniversary of the 1987 "Black Monday" crash. Friday, October 16, 1987, was also pretty ugly -- down an almost unheard of 108 points. The week had been pretty ugly, too. And it was a fairly fresh decline.

Similarities to current price action abound. There's no perfect algorithm, only common principles, and they're all here. So, trending down sharply again into the weekend -- back to last week's lows -- would be extra vulnerable to extending down sharply coming out of the weekend. But only ranging sideways Friday would still be vulnerable.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2777.50 2779.25 ...would target 2785.50 2787.25 Bias-down: under 2765.00 2766.75 ...would target 2758.75 2760.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.