CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET) Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.Pre-Open Stock Market Plan - 7:13 AM
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Stock Market Opening Update - 11:53 AM
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The 2154.25 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks at 10:30, just when its offsetting test was being triggered by a late no-bias signal.
But this morning's no-bias wouldn't be completely satisfied by the offsetting test of signals. Having tested the bias-up target, an offsetting test of the bias-down target was required, too. So the drop extended down to probe the 2148.75 bias down target by 1 point.
Bouncing back up to 2160.00 was retraced entirely. Its reaction down and a couple of shallower bounces have formed a Descending Triangle pattern. Attempts to reject it back above 2156.00 and 2160.00 are ongoing -- the bias environment began lapsing at 2156.00, and now the noon hour entry is testing 2160.00.
Entering the noon hour above 2160.00 would be credible for launching a retest of overnight highs. The morning's drop was dramatic and substantial, but not otherwise relevant since yesterday afternoon's bias environment low has not been broken. Not resuming the rally today wouldn't necessarily be bearish -- not so long as fresh lows are avoided.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 12:08 PM
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Day Trading Summary - 4:57 PM
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Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Opening bounce meets post-open plunge.
Opening at 2168.00 never dipped any deeper before soon resolving up sharply. But the 2180.50 overnight high -- essentially the rally's next higher objective -- was only attacked to test resistance at 2178.00 before reversing back down.
And down. And down.
The 2171.00 bias-up target was retraced aggressively, on the way down to touch the 2164.25 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period.
THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2170.50
2166.50
...would target
2177.00
2173.25
Bias-down: under
2154.25
2150.50
...would target
2148.00
2144.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Thursday afternoon's reaction down from 2175.50 was extended to attack 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. But the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around the close-quarters Double Top that had defined Wednesday's late-afternoon high. Probing the prior day's high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Closing AT the prior high isn't really any stronger. So, extending the rally on this leg probably can't afford much of a delay, or else a much deeper pullback will become likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2176.00
2172.25
...would target
2183.25
2179.50
Bias-down: under
2161.25
2157.50
...would target
2155.50
2151.75
Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.