Stock Market Trade Signals - 12-09-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's close above the 2215.00 objective (basis Mar, 2220.00 basis Dec) was not rejected Thursday. The afternoon bias environment's 2246.00 high stopped short of the next higher objective at 2147.25. Its reaction down originated too late to seriously threaten closing under the morning's 2231.50 low, and anyway held a test of 2237.00. The close bounced 6 points up to 2243.00. Overnight action's new info... A third consecutive relatively narrow overnight range? Firming only a couple of ticks up to 2243.50 was eventually retraced down to 2239.75 ahead of Europe's opens. Congestion there has now bounced back up to 2243.50, essentially unchanged from yesterday's close. If, then... Exiting any timing window above 2147.25 would target 2257.50, and either could be satisfied intraday. There is otherwise no "unfinished business above," certainly not any requirement for a higher close. That's especially interesting today, since rallies can entrench themselves by closing at new trend extremes on Fridays. So, while a new high close today would be bullish, not exploiting the proximity would be bearish -- especially if either 2147.25 or 2257.50 were tested intraday before closing negative. That's generally the only bearish scenario, other than temporary dips. Gapping down would not qualify for launching more than a temporary pullback, perhaps even limited to the open before recovering to retest yesterday's highs.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2244.25 would be likely to trigger the 2242.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2238.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I am away from the screens during today's noon hour and into the afternoon bias environment, then back through the close. The open was greeted by a shallow dip back down to the 2242.50 bias-up signal. Post-open action then steadily recovered up to the 2247.25 bias-up target, new highs. Reacting down wasn't recovered in time to renew the bias-up signal. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met. Renewing the bias-up signal would have next targeted 2252.50. Extending higher isn't precluded, it's just not required. Fresh highs have touched 2249.00. Not extending higher could range sideways through the close. Or, not extending higher could reverse back under 2242.50 when the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30 and slide into the weekend.

Potential for reversing down remains alive today for a new reason: Holding a test of the bias-up target. So, before having exceeded the bias-up signal at 10:15 to trigger it, its buying pressure was satisfied. This reflects impatient buying, which is not in itself bearish -- unless even less patient buyers arrive to absorb the impatient buyers quickly becoming impatient profit-takers.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2254.50 2248.75 ...would target  2265.25  2256.50 Bias-down: under  2247.50  2241.75 ...would target 2241.00  2235.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

REMINDER: I am away from the screens during today's noon hour and into the afternoon bias environment, then back through the close..

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2267.00  2261.25 ...would target  2272.25  2266.50 Bias-down: under  2259.00 2253.25 ...would target  2252.50  2246.75 Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A new trend extreme close on Friday, and you know what that means... 1. At least one higher close is expected, eventually if not already on Monday. 2. So, not closing higher Monday would tell us the reaction down is only a temporary correction. Closing higher Monday would render this contextual information useless. But immediately beginning a pullback -- which could last several days -- would give us confidence in expecting it to be temporary, and in looking for its complete recovery. There are other interesting factors to last week's rally. We'll discuss them during this weekend's Saturday Review. I'll send out a reminder overnight. Meanwhile... Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.