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CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday afternoon's 2255.75 low had attacked the morning's low to within 3 ticks, while retesting the afternoon's 2256.75 bias-down target. Its reaction extended higher through the close, attacking 2272.00 to within 1 tick -- a relevant level that happens also to be last Friday's trend high close. Oversold 1-minute RSI at the low was narrowly avoided. The intraday recovery didn't gain traction only because the noon hour's high wasn't recovered early enough. Overnight action's new info... No matter the potential or even the likelihood for rallying intraday Thursday, the path higher was vulnerable to an overnight drawdown. Defined by this morning's 2264.00 bias-down signal, the relentless overnight pullback has twice tested this limit. The second test is now bouncing from 2260.75. If, then... Sooo close, in two regards. First, closing yesterday above 2272.00 wouldn't have been any likelier to avoid an overnight dip, but it would have been likelier to resume yesterday afternoon's rally this morning. Second, yesterday's high touched last Friday's new trend high close, and yesterday's close was within 1 point of it. A new trend high close remains outstanding, and there's no assurance of its timing. As the overnight pullback shows, even the proximity to prior highs doesn't ensure extending higher. Even probing new highs won't ensure closing higher. Holding a test of this morning's bias-down signal (now being tested) would at least make new highs likely intraday. While triggering bias-down would likely only delay new highs, that delay is still vulnerable to probing under yesterday's lows. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2264.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2260.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Pullback low's timing is extended. Opening at the 2264.00 bias-down signal soon broke lower to test the 2258.25 bias-down target. Consolidating there into the second half-hour, plunging to within 3 ticks of the next likely support at 2250.50. A bounce to 2255.50.has now resolved down to probe under 2250.50 by 3 ticks. And now lower. Regardless of various interim support along the way down, recall that the renewed bias-down target is essentially 2247.50. Room for noise under it down to 2245.25. As relevant is probing under yesterday morning's low, which makes the pullback likely to extend into this afternoon.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2263.50 2258.25 ...would target  2268.75  2263.50 Bias-down: under  2255.75  2250.50 ...would target 2250.50  2245.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Big rally off of morning lows is still negative. Resuming the pullback to probe under Wednesday morning's lows meant the next likely opportunity for a low would be Thursday afternoon. It's now Thursday afternoon, and the afternoon bias environment is now lapsing. The noon hour was already greeted rallying off of the morning's 2248.50 low. Extending higher through the noon hour triggered bias-up, and its 2263.50 bias-up target is now being tested.

That's 17 points of buying pressure, and its rally is only probing above the 2264.50 open. Which was itself a 6-point gap down. And while the rally is back above yesterday morning's 2255.00-2257.00 prior lows, no prior high has yet been recovered. A lot of buying pressure to expend, only to still be in negative territory, fulfilling a target. Did I mention RSIs are deteriorating? No? RSIs are deteriorating.

Extending higher from here essentially requires immediately exploiting a few favorable factors. The recovery is an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, which doesn't reverse down on a tick. And, potentially, entering the final hour above the bias environment's 2264.00 high would gain traction, and make reversing down today more difficult. Above 2266.00 (being attacked now) could almost literally explode higher. Back under 2261.25 would start to suggest momentum is reversing back down.

Thursday's intraday rally from 2248.50 eventually touched 2267.00. It gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high, and then entering the final hour higher. But it didn't recover Wednesday's 2270.50 close, so the traction doesn't prevent an interim drop. The traction does help to absorb an interim drop, and to reverse it back up into positive territory. Otherwise, rallying would have required gapping up. Meanwhile the traction helps to limit an interim drop. A relatively shallow temporary dip could test 2257.50 or Thursday's noon hour "lower prior highs" at 2254.25, and still recover. A deeper pullback, and a delayed recovery, would still target 2247.50. It was attacked to within 1 point Thursday, but now actually testing it would be difficult to hold. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2276.75 2271.50 ...would target  2282.50  2277.50 Bias-down: under  2267.00  2262.00 ...would target 2261.75 2256.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.