Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 03-14-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's gap up to 1997.00 was maintained through the open, but not extended until the first hour was ending. The late start didn't prevent extending to new recovery highs attacking 2010.00 during the noon hour, and then 2013.00 into the close. No traction was gained for the effort. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open gapped down under Friday's noon hour high. Price action since then has essentially ranged flat-to-lower, still supported well above Friday afternoon's bias environment lows at what is this morning's 2006.00 bias-down signal. If, then... Gapping down Sunday night back to Friday's noon hour high helps to isolate Friday afternoon's fresh high. Friday breakouts already are not often confirmed by a higher close Monday. More so, it helps to confirm a new focus on Wednesday's inflation-sensitive FOMC meeting, and less on last week's bazooka-toting ECB. Meanwhile, ranging narrowly Sunday night is due more to anxiousness than to calm, and doesn't often persist intraday. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2004.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2006.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2010.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Choppy fluctuation around critical support. Hovering narrowly around the 2006.00 bias-down signal opened there, and then bounced to attack 2009.00. Reacting down to fresh lows came within 2-3 ticks of the 2001.50 bias-down target. But bias-down was never signaled. It was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And it was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. This morning is not bias-down, so the bias-down target isn't in-play. It's not no-bias, so an offsetting test of the bias-up signal isn't in-play. That said, filling the gap back up to Friday's 2012.00 close is likely. Potentially also a fresh high testing this morning's 2013.00 bias-up target. Back under 2004.00 would start targeting fresh session lows. Otherwise, sellers are likely marginalized.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2020.50 2010.50 ...would target  2026.25  2016.25 Bias-down: under  2013.25  2003.25 ...would target 2009.75  1998.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's chop still hasn't resolved. While gapping down helped to reject Friday's late probe above key resistance, momentum hasn't reversed down. Wide swings have failed to gain traction. The morning's bias environment has lapsed but its range persists. This doesn't often follow a subdued overnight range. But it does make the first trending attempt out of this morning's range likely to fail. The tight range makes price levels less relevant than timing -- less relevant but still relevant. Exiting the noon hour above Friday's 2012.00 cash session close or any probed resistance would be the best opportunity to rally at all. Otherwise, entering the afternoon's bias environment back under 1-2 probed resistance levels would start signaling a deeper pullback coming.

Monday's sloppy, choppy session probed above Friday's high but didn't close higher. The breakout is not confirmed. Meanwhile, buyers gained no traction for recovering from the gap down. And the close reacted back down into the range. Tuesday can try the same rejection of Friday's range that could have been tried Monday. But it would be much less capable of reversing the trend after not quickly rejecting Friday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2024.25 2014.25 ...would target  2030.00  2020.00 Bias-down: under  2014.00  2004.00 ...would target 2008.50  1998.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.