Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 04-13-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's opening surge held a test of the 2041.50 bias-up signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. Reversing back up from within 3 points of the objective wasn't surprising, but not reversing back down again did break the pattern. In fact, that required the ultra-rare occurrence of no-bias trending recovering the 2046.50 bias-up target when the morning's bias environment lapsed. The afternoon extended higher to 2058.50 before a late dip to 2052.00. Buyers narrowly avoided gaining traction decisively. Overnight action's new info... The rally has extended almost relentlessly. A 5-point pullback from 2063.00 into Europe's opens offered , and now a 4-1/2 point pullback from 2069.25, have not damaged the trend. The 2066.75 high following the Employment Situation report is being probed. But last Sunday night's 2071.50 "new Globex trend extreme" remains as yet untouched. If, then... Relentless overnight trending often reverses direction intraday, especially when greeting the open at a prior extreme or support/resistance. Breaking the obstacle through the open then often extends the overnight trending intraday. Gapping up above prior highs have only a brief window to attract post-open sponsorship. The immediate past three sessions each extended their gaps up for 45, 40 and then 15 minutes before reversing back down. There is little assurance of another gap up not repeating this pattern, especially being indicated to open at the renewed bias-up target. That little assurance is two pieces of "unfinished business above" -- the 2071.50 new Globex trend extreme's required retest, and an eventual new trend higher close for the current uptrend's Friday high close. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2062.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal (it's 2069.00 renewed bias-up target is being tested overnight).

Slowness to extend gap up may be its strongest element. I noted earlier the three immediate prior sessions. Their gaps up were ultimately reversed, but not before extending higher during the open and opening hour. Today's gap up to 2065.00-2065.75 quickly extended higher, probing the 2069.25 overnight high by more than 1 point during the first half-hour. Quickly extending higher didn't translate into an uptrend, and the first hour really only ranged narrowly between 2067.25-2069.75.

And now a break lower is touching a fresh post-open low at 2064.00. Is the three-session streak turning into four?

Probably not. One obvious difference between today's gap up reversal is its origin. The three immediate prior sessions had been contained within the range. Today's high probed all prior highs first. That allows more room for selling without it damaging the chart. As for that selling, its 2064.00 target was just touched. Whether or not it's retested, the most bullish scenario at this stage of the pattern would keep pullbacks shallow. Filling the gap back down to yesterday's close wouldn't help to maintain the degree of optimism that upward momentum requires. Back above 2966.75 (being tested now) would start to signal the pullback was done, and that momentum was beginning to reverse up. Having stopped pessimistically short of touching last week's 2071.50 "new Globex trend extreme," the open's 2070.50 peak probably won't be able to offer much resistance. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment under its 2062.25 bias-up target would suggest that buyers are done. Especially with Crude Oil already having met and held its target yesterday, a downleg would unfold quickly.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2081.50 2075.00 ...would target  2086.75  2080.25 Bias-down: under  2074.75  2068.25 ...would target 2069.50  2063.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering above prior highs would satisfy objectives. The post-open dip to 2064.00 had been recovered to the open's 2070.50 high. A break higher as the morning's bias environment began lapsing extended to 2073.75. Dipping into the noon hour consolidated between 2068.00-2071.00, triggering no-bias.

The high's RSIs aren't entirely overbought to require its retest. But ranging narrowly sideways through the close isn't as likely as printing fresh highs -- targeting 2074.25-2075.00. Perhaps the Beige Book release at 2:00 would be a catalyst.

Dipping back down into the range could still fulfill the "unfinished business above" of a new trend high close. Preferably, that close would be above the opening range's 2070.50 high, since the open's range was overlapping the prior high. The rally might extend even higher, but it wouldn't be required. This isn't a Friday, but exiting the afternoon's bias environment above prior timing window's highs (i.e. 2073.75) would be bullish. Reacting down from Beige Book would still be likelier to recover.

A "new Globex trend extreme" at 2071.50 had created the requirement for its eventual intraday retest. It was met in an attack on 2074.00 as Wednesday morning's bias environment began lapsing. A new trend high close two Fridays ago at 2065.00 had created the requirement for another eventual new trend high close. This was satisfied along the way to 2077.00. The next higher objective above 2073.00 is 2082.25. Not a requirement, but an attraction. And it's likely to be met -- even if only overnight to establish another new Globex trend extreme, or after a gap down Thursday is recovered. There is otherwise no unfinished business above, other than the ongoing rally likely to print new highs. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here. [SPECIAL NOTE: Charts will be unavailable between 6:30-8:30 ET tonight.]

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2083.50  2077.00 ...would target  2088.50  2082.25 Bias-down: under  2074.50 2068.25 ...would target  2068.75  2062.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.