Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 04-25-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's open blipped-down to touch the 2081.75 bias-down signal. Without triggering it, an offsetting test of the 2091.00 bias-up signal was put into play. That didn't prevent a mid-morning drop to the 2075.50 bias-down target. But holding its test only cemented the 2091.00 objective into becoming "unfinished business above." Friday afternoon rallied to fulfill two interim objectives, first retracing the morning's bias-down signal, and then extending to the 10:15 2086.00 print. No traction was gained, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low. Overnight action's new info... Don't blink, you'll miss it... Sunday night's open gapped up to 2091.50, immediately fulfilling Friday's unfinished business above. That bit of optimism was reversed abruptly by a reversal that eventually tested 2081.75. A bounce attacked 2086.00 into Europe's opens. Its optimism was also reversed abruptly, too, by steep slide that tested Friday's 2075.00 low down to 2074.00. Optimism is poking its head out again, retracing all of the last drop to attack 2086.00 again. If, then... Unfinished business below and above at 2075.00 and 2091.00 did not require intraday retest. Their attractions are now neutralized. And the open is indicated essentially unchanged around 2086.00. Opening flat with no outstanding attraction would make for a very lifeless morning. Resuming the rally is still likelier, more so after three overnight instances of quashing optimism. The latest instance -- recovering the steep slide from 2086.00 -- has formed a Symmetrical Triangle whose break lower may be resolving up now. Gapping up would be helpful confirmation, while a flat open would suggest another attack on the lows. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2086.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2089.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Last week's reversal bleeding into this week's open. Without yet trending back up above a prior high before the weekend, last week's rally had potential for bleeding into the new week. After making its imprint, a recovery remains possible. Potential for a recovery remains alive thanks to Sunday night's opening surge. Sunday night's opening surge wasn't outright bullish. Neutralizing the 2091.00 objective above has been the recovery's worst development. Its reversal down to 2074.00 was recovered to attack 2086.00, which has also proved unwise. All of that overnight optimism hasn't just failed to gain traction intraday -- it hasn't been repeated intraday. Post-open action has only trended down, in a series of lower lows and lower highs. Fresh lows are being probed down to 2072.50. The 2071.50 target would fulfill the 2080.25 bias-down signal's selling pressure. Resolving any bounce lower would next target 2067.00-2069.00. Rallying from either target could recover all of the overnight drop from 2091.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2086.00 2079.50 ...would target  2091.25  2085.00 Bias-down: under 2077.75  2071.50 ...would target 2073.25  2066.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still in negative territory, with a window opening. This morning's 2071.50 bias-down target defined the morning's lower-end. Hovering just above it for an hour before a blip-down fulfilled it down to 2071.00, reacting up sharply to test 2076.00. Another elapsed before extending higher to test the afternoon's 2079.50 bias-up signal, but that held. And the bias environment has drifted back down to test 2076.00. Now the bias environment is lapsing. Since a fresh afternoon high would be part of a return into positive territory, and limited time remains, any credible recovery would be very aggressive, and very product, targeting a probe above 2086.00. Otherwise, the balance of the afternoon may continue drifting, to 2074.25 and lower.

The vulnerability to fresh session highs never materialized. At least, not in time to be reliable enough for a hold-long. Monday's last-minute surge offered a glimpse of the seemingly relentless surge, albeit only to probe above the morning's 2080.50 high. Delaying the recovery has created "ineffectual pessimism" from Monday's session. Gapping down, probing fresh lows, and spending the entire session in negative territory is pessimism. Not closing under a prior low is ineffectual. The upside vulnerability remains alive, now by the proxy of gapping up Tuesday -- i.e. trending up overnight. Monday afternoon's rally didn't gain traction, so resuming the rally Tuesday -- the rally that had peaked last Wednesday -- requires gapping up. Any further delay to resuming the rally should extend the decline, the decline that began last Wednesday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2092.25 2086.00 ...would target  2098.00  2091.75 Bias-down: under  2083.00  2076.75 ...would target 2078.25  2072.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.