Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 06-03-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday was the second consecutive session that overnight weakness extended to fresh lows through the open, only to reverse back up for the balance of the day. The open's dip recovered from 2086.75 up to a last-minute touch of 2104.00. That fulfilled the required retest of Sunday night's 2103.75 new Globex trend extreme. Tuesday's 2100.00 gap up was retested, and still being overlapped into the close. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour's high, but never got confirmation that the rally had gained traction for its effort. Overnight action's new info... Volatility is often dormant ahead of the monthly Employment Situation report. Last night was no exception. An early blip-up made fresh highs up to 2105.00 (not qualifying as a new trend extreme), but price action since has ranged sideways. A touch of 2101.75 bounced back up temporarily to 2104.75. Its complete retracement has also bounced back, now touching 2105.00. If, then... Yesterday's cash and futures sessions closes were above all prior intraday highs. But their structures were still overlapping the prior highs. The new high close isn't necessarily disqualified from being a breakout, but it is in need of confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Meanwhile, gapping up would be vulnerable to reversing down intraday, mostly through the open. Even trending up through the morning would be vulnerable to a late-afternoon reversal. Gapping down would be more vulnerable to extending down through the morning... NOTE: There is no Saturday Review this weekend, so post-market Wrap will be extended to discuss the bigger picture. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2106.25 would be likely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2111.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2109.50 bias-up target at 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2100.75 wold be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Nothing but selling pressure since the news. And targets met. A blip-up to 2106.00 had preceded the Employment Situation report. Its reaction down hesitated at the 2095.50 bias-down signal to form a Descending Triangle. Its break down to 2091.25 reacted up to 2098.00 through the open. And then it was back to business. The 2088.00 bias-down target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. The renewed bias-down target is 2082.50.  And it was just met to within 1 tick. Business done? Possibly. After correcting the first reaction up by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, another bounce is now retesting 2088.00 as resistance. A signal that already triggered below it has yet to be confirmed. Extending higher would have room to test the 2095.50 bias-down signal during the bias-down environment.

That has been this week's pattern -- extending overnight drops post-open, and then recovering intraday. Today is a bit extreme, and the post-open series of lower lows and lower highs (i.e. downtrend) remains intact.

The question to be resolved is whether the Friday Factors of impending two-day illiquidity have exacerbated the initial selling beyond unsustainable levels, or if it will have an even greater effect as the weekend approaches.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2101.00 2099.00 ...would target  2107.00  2105.25 Bias-down: under  2091.00  2089.25 ...would target 2085.50  2083.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

In addition to gaining traction for its effort, Friday's recovery was also bullish for its restrained optimism. Not filling the gap back up to Thursday's close left its attraction above outstanding. Reversing down from here would all but require gapping down sharply. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here, which is extended to include the bigger picture since there is no Saturday Review this weekend.

Monitor Sunday night's Globex trading beginning at 6pm ET in the chaRTroom here.