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CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's opening blip-up to 2152.00 reacted down aggressively, but held 2147.00-2148.00 support. Just as aggressively, 2152.00 was recovered, and that was the end of Wednesday's weakness. Gradually eking higher eventually tested 2158.00 into the close. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... A brief surge to fresh highs attacked 2161.00, which was retraced as quickly back down to its 2156.00 origin. A choppy sideways 3-4 point range ranging since then has centered around.2156.00-2158.00. This might be considered as anxious paralysis ahead of today's BOE policy statement, generally expected to ease. If, then... Wednesday's late break higher came too late to gain traction. So, extending its rally must begin by gapping up Thursday. Whether today or tomorrow, a retest of Sunday night's 2177.75 "new Globex trend extreme" would be in-play. Otherwise, greeting Thursday's open already in decline would still target a retest of Tuesday's oversold RSIs at 2141.50. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2160.75 would be likely to trigger the 2159.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2155.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Opening gains fail to hold. The 2158.75 opening print as above yesterday's high. That's a gap up. The opening 15 minutes of volatility extended higher to 2162.00, trending in a series of higher highs and higher lows. That's a gap up, maintained. Yesterday's rally couldn't extend this morning otherwise, not since its buyers had failed to gain traction. So, maintaining a gap up allows the rally to resume this morning. But it's not required. The open's 2161.00 inflection point was probed no higher than its first 4 minutes before reversing more than 2 points back down. That wasn't required to extend down, but it did. And the 2159.00 bias-up signal failed to trigger.

An offsetting test of the 2150.50 bias-down signal is now in-play. Its test would likely give way to also retest Tuesday's 2141.50 low. The post-open dip has tested 2154.00.

That 10:15 signal could have been invalidated by recovering the 2159.00 bias-up signal at 10:30. It wasn't. Invalidation is still possible at 11:30, but then by recovering the bias-up signal's test up to 2162.00. Meanwhile,a bounce is now retesting the 2159.00 bias-up signal. Back under 2157.50 would signal the next downleg underway. Any higher could lead to invalidating the downside attractions.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2170.50 2165.25 ...would target  2175.50  2170.50 Bias-down: under  2162.50  2157.50 ...would target 2156.50 2151.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Earlier optimism wasn't very contagious. The opening 15 minutes of volatility had trended up to 2162.00, maintaining a gap up above yesterday's highs. That enabled trending higher today before the last 60-90 minutes. But trending higher wasn't required. A drop back down to 2154.00 had put into play a test of 2150.50. It could have been invalidated back above 2159.00 by 10:30, or above 2162.00 by 11:30-noon. Neither condition was met, so the test of 2150.50 becomes "unfinished business below" that requires being retested eventually -- probably along the way to retesting Tuesday morning's oversold RSIs at 2141.50. Meanwhile, the noon hour briefly touched 2163.50 before dipping back down to 2158.00. Neither of the 2157.50-2165.25 bias signals was touched, so this is a no-bias environment. Trending beyond either signal could resume as the bias environment begins lapsing would be free to trend. Thursday afternoons prior to Friday morning's Employment Situation report can become paralyzed by anxiousness.That may define this afternoon's price action. But back above 2161.25 and 2164.00 would be vulnerable to trend higher.

Thursday's gap up above Wednesday's tractionless rally enabled the rally to probe higher without bearish consequence. And there wasn't much consequence to probing higher, as an 8-point reaction down was recovered entirely. But the recovery wasn't exploited, as anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report restrained trending attempts. The payrolls report is being greeted from 2158.00-2159.00 without any traction either way. So, maintaining a gap open Friday beyond either end of its 2154.00-2164.00 range would be likely to trend in that direction. If down, then unfinished business below would be in-play at 2150.50 and 2141.50. Any rally would be likely to extend to retest Sunday night's 2177.75 "new Globex trend extreme." Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2170.25 2165.25 ...would target  2176.25  2171.25 Bias-down: under  2160.50  2155.50 ...would target 2155.50 2150.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.