Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 08-18-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Higher and higher highs into and out of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes were accompanied by overbought RSIs, requiring interim reactions down to recover. Which they did. RSIs didn't get overbought at the last high's 2179.75 peak, but that didn't stop its retest from extending to 2181.00 into the close. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Wednesday's 2165.50 low. Ironically, that low had probed the rally's last relative low, so its recovery triggered a passively bullish WedEX Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's closing strength extended momentarily to touch 2182.00, and then began a dip back down to 2178.75. Recovering only probed fresh highs by 2-3 ticks before reversing back down to 2178.75, which is still being tested now. If, then... Invalidating the bullish WedEX would require gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon's 2169.25 low, or lower (which would also form a "session-long decline" setup). That's not currently indicated, but neither yesterday's recovery extending. Deteriorating RSIs into Wednesday's last high opened the door to an overnight pullback. Avoiding that doesn't shut the door to a pullback intraday Thursday. Having failed to gain traction Wednesday afternoon, the rally is unlikely to extend this morning anyway -- not without maintaining a gap up. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2178.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2182.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2183.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Dry cleaners morning? Or, waiting for a shoe to drop. Opening at 2179.00 surged to 2181.75. Its reaction down touched 2177.50 and bounced back up to 2181.75. A shallower dip recovered again to 2181.75. That's flat-to-higher from yesterday's close. But it's certainly not a gap up, so rallying this morning is unlikely. Trying to rally is likely to fail. Now this morning's 2182.50 bias-up signal is being touched. This being a no-bias environment, probing any higher would likely fail. Backing-and-filling this morning was likely, anyway. It's not required, but a pullback remains likelier than trending.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2186.75 2184.00 ...would target  2192.00  2189.50 Bias-down: under  2181.00  2178.50 ...would target 2176.25  2173.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Failed rally instead of temporary dip. Although opening strength up to 2181.25 did reverse down as expected, testing 2178.00 as support reacted up to fresh highs at 2184.25. That rally attempt was doomed to failure, since today's open had not gapped up to overcome yesterday afternoon's rally not gaining traction. Anyway, probing this morning's 2182.50 bias-up signal after failing to trigger it was "no-bias trending," also doomed to failure. So far, that doom has been limited to retesting the open's 2178.00 low as support. Meanwhile, this afternoon's 2178.50 bias-down signal has avoided triggering. It should define the next hour's lower-end if retested, similar to this morning's bias-up signal having defined the upper-end despite being probed by almost 2 points. Yesterday afternoon's rally doesn't require extending higher today, even after the bias environment lapses. Backing-and-filling isn't required to extend any lower, either. Limitation is the only requirement until the bias environments have lapsed.

Thursday afternoon's rally gained no traction for its effort, such as it was.bullish. The morning's 2184.25 peak was retested off of the noon hour's 2178.00 low. But despite that momentum, the afternoon bias environment trying to gain traction, and being within proximity of prior highs, no traction was signaled. So, sellers weren't marginalized but they weren't productive. Extending higher without delay must gap up Friday. Not gapping up would be unlikely to extend higher before late-afternoon -- which would be too late to fulfill the bullish WedEX signal. Gapping up is likely, but not gapping up could range narrowly around around Thursday's high before rallying into the weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2187.50 2185.00 ...would target  2192.50  2190.00 Bias-down: under  2179.50  2177.00 ...would target  2174.50  2172.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN INVALIDATED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.