Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's first half-hour ranged around unchanged at 2999.00-2889.00. But the attraction to retest Wednesday's oversold RSIs at its 2877.25 low pulled price down to 2869.00 before the bias window lapsed. A bounce held a test of 2877.25 before retesting the low by another point down to 2868.00 as the after noon bias window opened. Rallying back up to 2884.50 failed to close higher, testing 2880.25 as support through the close . Overnight action's new info... Not much has developed overnight as the market waits for this morning's Employment Situatiopn report. Globex initially attacked 2871.00 as support through Asia's opens, and then eventually tested 2881.00 as resistance into Europe's opens. Reacting back down has attacked 2872.00 as support, with the payrolls report just 90 minutes away. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Recovering 2880.25 and 2884.50 Thursday would have sealed a bottom and greeted this morning's Employment Situation report from a position of strength. Perhaps that was prevented by pessimism ahead of the report, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Absent that, gapping up sufficiently -- like, above Thursday morning's 2893.00 high -- could serve by proxy for buyers to gain traction and rally sharply higher through the morning, initially attracted to Wednesday afternoon's 2895.50 bias objective that is "unfinished business" above. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 2857.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications aren't considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Both bias parameters rejected. The pre-open Employment Situation report was greeted at 2875.00. Its reaction spiked down to 2869.00, which extended down to 2866.00 through the open. A retest down to 2865.00 was recovered, back above both the 2868.75 bias-down target and the 2875.25 bias-down signal. Maintaining recoveries from testing both through 10:15 has put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters -- 2886.75 and 2892.25. Unfinished business at 2895.50 would likely be a part of that mix. Nothing prevents a straight path up. Also, nothing requires it, even if we knew with 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} certainty the upside will be fulfilled today. But exiting the bias environment rallying through 2884.50-2886.75 would start to suggest a short-squeeze into the weekend. Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment in negative territory under 2880.25 would be less reliable for rallying this afternoon. And back under 2875.00 would re-open the door to 2857.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2883.00 2883.50 ...would target 2888.25 2888.75 Bias-down: under 2874.25 2875.00 ...would target 2868.00 2868.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Tariff headline derails recovery. A funny thing happened on the way to an afternoon short-squeeze. The morning's fresh trend extreme at 2865.00 had been recovered in time to avoid triggering the 2875.25 bias-down signal. And that was after also testing the 2868.75 bias-down target. Offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters were put into play. But it was still a bias-down environment, so the window needed to be exited back above 2884.50 for confirmation that momentum had reversed up. In fact, 2884.50 was tested as the bias environment began lapsing. A good effort, and probably on its way to being successful. But it was already retraced down to an inflection point at 2877.00 into the noon hour.Being in proximity to triggering a signal, then rejecting it, is almost tantamount to triggering the opposite signal. At least, the pattern becomes hyper-vulnerable to a reversal, which a tariff headline exploited in a very big way. Plunging to 2868.00 has ranged sideways back up to 2874.50. This is essentially the afternoon's 2868.75-2875.00 bias parameters. Bias-down triggered, and its bias-down target is already met. More important, sellers that were almost marginalized are refreshed, while buyers have been trapped ahead of the weekend. Potential down to 2857.00 is only growing.

The short-squeeze for Friday afternoon was never actually confirmed by recovering 2884.50 into the noon hour. The bias window's exit had touched 2884.50, only for a reaction down to 2877.00 to try resuming the rally. The reaction down failed, instead inflecting down under 2877.00 in a knee-jerk reaction down to tariff headlines that tested 2868.00. Unfinished business above at 2886.75, 2892.25 and 2895.50 would have to wait. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Friday afternoon, which really should have been evident during the same noon hour window that had reacted down. Gapping up Monday above Friday's 2884.50 high would serve by proxy, just like gapping up Friday above Thursday's 2893.00 would have served by proxy. Meanwhile, a recovery needs to find buyers at lower levels. There is potential down to 2857.00, if not a likelihood for having closed under Wednesday's 2877.50 low. A corrective bounce up to 2879.75-2881.50 can't be dismissed, and must hold to maintain the near-term downside potential. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. NO SATURDAY REVIEW DUE TO TRAVEL, ENJOY THE WEEKEND!

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2881.00 2881.50 ...would target 2886.25 2886.75 Bias-down: under 2870.50 2871.00 ...would target 2864.25 2864.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.