Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's outside day had corrected overnight back down to 2991.25, and recovered to  Wednesday's 3012.25 high. Thursday's open was greeted at 3013.00 and rallied through the bias environment up to 3024.50. That probed last Thursday's prior intraday high by 1 point, while attacking last Friday's pre-open high by 5 ticks. The balance of the session retraced it all through the afternoon down to 3005.00, and its 5-point reaction ended at or under Wednesday's 3008.25-3009.50 close. Other than the late low, Thursday was the first session not to touch 3005.00 -- and that was the first time tested as support, coming well after the bias environment exit. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Relatively narrow sideways ranging between 3006.00-3012.00 persisted through midnight, and through  Europe's opens. Eventually a flat-to-higher slope has emerged, with fresh highs now testing 3016.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's flat close doesn't help the recovery attempt's momentum, not after having probed multi-session highs intraday. Even without closing negative, there was risk of extending down overnight. That overnight downside risk seems to have been avoided, but the morning remains vulnerable if bias-up doesn't trigger. Or, a "session-long rally," by gapping up above Thursday afternoon's 3018.00 bias environment high because the close trended down. Rallying this afternoon could confirm a WedEX setup that barely missed forming a bullish signal, because Wednesday's recovery was encompassed by Tuesday's late surge above 3005.00. Quad witch expiration volatility can fade fast ahead of the weekend. So, generally, trading above 3005.00 this morning would help to marginalize sellers, but the momentum of actually bouncing away from 3005.00 could trigger a squeeze due to Friday Factors. Friday Factors can cut either way. And another round of backing-and-filling back down into 2996.50-3005.00 can risk being attracted no only down to Wednesday's 2980.75 low, but also lower to 2975.00 and lower. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3015.00 would be likely to trigger the 3012.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3011.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Bias is not necessarily momentum. Flat-to-higher overnight ranging eventually got up to 3016.75. And it was soon retraced down to 3010.00, still a couple of points into positive territory. And still not reversing momentum back down. Reacting up into the open extended to a fresh high at 3018.00. But post-open price action has essentially ranged around the 3015.00 open. The 3012.75 bias-up signal did trigger, and its 3019.00 bias-up target is in-play. But a break under 3014.00 would likely detour to fill the gap back down to yesterday's close first, at least down to 3009.00. Probing above 3018.00 would start to signal uptrending has resumed.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3014.50 3016.00 ...would target 3022.25 3023.75 Bias-down: under 3007.50 3009.25 ...would target 3002.00 3003.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Headline confronts expiration. The open's sideways ranging had suggested the gap up would be retraced, regardless of gapping up, triggering the 3012.25 bias-up, and probing it up to 3018.00. In fact, recovering 3018.00 would have put the overnight rally back in control, but it was only touched. The likely pullback attraction was 3009.00, which was eventually probed by 1 point. The overnight rally was then free to resume.

Which it did, or at least tried. An attack on 3014.00 was retraced back down under 3009.00, and its reaction had only touched another buy signal at 3011.75 before the China trade headline hit.

Plunging to 2985.25 has triggered this afternoon's bias-down signal, and renewed it under the bias-down target. Oversold RSIs at the low do NOT require a retest -- not, yet, being the product of the headline's knee-jerk reaction. But reversing momentum up only begins upon recovering 2999.75. The shock to expiration must be absorbed coming out of the bias environment, or else be vulnerable to probing Wednesday's low down to at leas 2975.00. The influence of Friday Factors might otherwise help to trigger a short-squeeze, except that the plunge's sudden re-pricing doesn't actually reflect that much selling pressure. A buy signal would still get a benefit of the doubt, more with the help of expiration. But the burden of proof is definitely on buyers. And the 2996.50-3005.00 range's retest resolution will be predictive.

Friday's quad-witch expiration started out slowly, then ended with a bang. The slow start was disguised as a gap up to probe and trigger the 3012.75 bias-up signal, while only ranging sideways around the opening print. Lacking any upside momentum made a pullback likely to 3009.00, and it was tested down to 3008.00. So, the morning's unmet 3019.00 bias-up target became "unfinished business." An attempt to resume the overnight rally was attacking 3014.00 when it was blind-sided by a China trade headline that triggered a plunge to 2985.25. That was the afternoon bias environment's entry, and its exit had bounced back up to 3003.25. The final hour slid through the close down to 2988.25, but was still inside the 2996.50-3005.00 range within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Leaving the 2996.50-3005.00 range any earlier would have been likely to extend even lower Monday, i.e. to retest Wednesday's low down to 2975.00. Regardless of the ultimate resolution, headline reactions are usually retraced. Friday retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the headline's reaction to 3003.25. Gapping up above it, and preferably also above 3005.00, could avoid extending the reaction down. And extending the reaction is likely, if Monday's open isn't already gapping up sufficiently. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2999.00 3000.50 ...would target 3005.75 3007.25 Bias-down: under 2986.25 2987.75 ...would target 2978.75 2980.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.