Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 10-05-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Plunging on Friday's pre-open payrolls report was sponsored by strong hands. We know this because the open maintained a gap down under Thursday afternoon's 1891.50 low to 1883.00. But the "session-long decline" setup it had triggered was never any more productive before inverting through the bias environment's exit. The balance of the session fulfilled that inversion above and beyond its minimum requirement -- not only filling the gap back up to Thursday's 1913.50 close, but also retracing the pre-open plunge's 1928.50 origin, and then probing even higher to attack 1944.00. Buyers gained traction thanks to trending up through the 3:10-3:20 window to confirm the bias environment having been exited above the noon hour's high. Overnight action's new info... The prior session ended by testing 1942.00 resistance, but Sunday night's initial weakness held 1937.00 while consolidating into midnight. A break higher was retraced back into the consolidation, and then high, now attacking 1958.00. If, then... Closing above the 1942.00 resistance would have put into play the next higher objective at 1960.00. Overnight action is posturing the open to potentially satisfy it. Like closing at an objective, the next timing window can extend higher if the reaction is limited in both duration and depth. But gapping up without an interim pullback from having closed AT an objective is difficult to extend higher, and at least a pullback is likelier. Especially on Mondays, when greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. So, extending higher this morning depends upon extending higher with hardly any hesitation. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1953.00 would be likely also to maintain the recovery above the 1948.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal.

Post-open action is all about extending the rally. Opening at 1956.00 didn't even hint at reversing down. And soon the hours-long consolidation was breaking higher to eventually attack 1967.00. Its reaction to news dipped down momentarily to 1962.00, and now fresh highs are testing 1968.00. Any reaction down this morning is likely only temporary. That said, back under 1963.75 would target 1956.00. It would be easier to recover so long as its origin isn't within view of the bias environment starting to lapse CAVEAT: There has yet to be a close above the rally's 1960.00 objective. And this morning's complex uptrending will have fulfilled most requirements of Friday's buyers having gained traction. So, delaying a break lower until this afternoon could be much more productive.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1978.75 1968.75 ...would target  1984.50  1974.50 Bias-down: under  1969.25  1959.25 ...would target  1963.75  1953.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Sponsorship to extend higher must make itself obvious soon. Exceeding the 1960.00 objective has spent the morning trending higher. That doesn't yet confirm a bigger rally is underway targeting a complete retracement of the August FOMC reaction's 2011.75 high -- but it's a start. Confirmation still could go a little further. Near-term, that would be to trigger this afternoon's bias-up and extend higher so a late-afternoon drop has room to be absorbed reaction down. Or at the close, maintain the recovery above 1960.00.

Sponsorship for extending higher is needed. Because the morning's rally has satisfied all other objectives that developed along the way: The structural requirement to probe above the open's 1968.25 highs, the pattern's likelihood to reject the shallow false break lower. Swing measurements targeting 1969.50.

Exceeding 1970.50 now should also trigger the 1968.75 bias-up signal at 1:20. Probably not back under 1966.50, and even less so under 1960.00.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Friday's reaction down from probing the 1.1265 bounce limit extended down Monday through the 1.1213 sell signal to put into play fresh lows targeting 1.1045 and potentially also 1.0900. A second consecutive lower close under 1.1190 would confirm. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Extending its pullback to test 1130.00 Monday morning was quickly recovered back above 1133.50 to suggest the rubber band was snapping back up to resume the rally. But a second consecutive higher close didn't confirm the breakout underway. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping up and extending sharply higher Monday now requires that pullbacks hold 15.55 to maintain the rally's momentum. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) After closing Friday while testing Thursday's high, gapping down Monday within Friday's range doesn't require filling the gap back up to Friday's close before extending down, which is suggested by closing under 157-24. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Surging above 46.00 through Monday's open attacked 47.00, but didn't signal the trend breaking higher. The ongoing narrow consolidation remains vulnerable to breaking lower, initially targeting 42.80 and potentially probing last month's lows. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday avoided piercing any prior low and only ranged flat-to-higher. Early above 2.48 Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday, so long as 2.44 were to hold any test as support.

So, Friday's recovery was not an anomaly. It was extended Sunday night and throughout Monday. It's also not a novelty, since it didn't launch from trend lows but from a pullback. Vulnerability to a corrective pullback increases when buyers don't gain traction for their efforts, as with Monday afternoon. Gapping up would signal instead that the rally had attracted new sponsorship without need of a correction. Assuming no gap down, the rally has now retraced into the orbit of last month's FOMC announcement. Overbought RSIs at its 2011.75 high are an attraction. A pullback first could be triggered under 1972.00 and have room down to 1956.00. So long as 1960.00 holds through the close, the trend remains up. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfykxhh

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1991.00  1981.00 ...would target  1997.25  1987.25 Bias-down: under  1982.00  1972.00 ...would target  1974.00  1964.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.