Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's Veteran's Day holiday had an opportunity to start the pullback I had described during the weekend's Saturday Review. In fact, Sunday night trended down relentlessly from Friday's 3092.00 close, albeit holding tests of 3077.00 through Europe's opens. And Monday's 3076.00 open did immediately probe lower to 3074.50. Price remained low enough for long enough to form an anchor, but that didn't prevent the balance of the session from rallying up to 3088.00. The afternoon's 3090.75 bias-up target became "unfinished business" above. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday night's initial dip probed back under the afternoon's lows to attack 3081.00. A rally began before midnight, extending through Monday's late high and 3090.75 (green dashes) on the way up to 3094.00. That's also this morning's bias-up target, and its reaction fell sharply through Europe's opens to attack 3085.00. Now another bounce is attacking 3092.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Monday's intraday rally originated from the opening anchor's position of weakness (circled red), which suggests that a bounce's target will react down to lower lows, instead of to higher lows that resolve up. And Monday's uptrending "Inside Day" reflects weak-handed optimism, which tends to bearish from a contrarian perspective. That all could become moot if Tuesday gaps up to and/or through Friday's 3092.00 high -- which is being tested now -- to launch an upleg targeting 3135.00. Not gapping up enough would remain vulnerable to retracing Monday's anchor in the 3077.00 area, where there's probably an air pocket, and another downleg next targeting 3066.00 then 3044.50. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3090.75 would be likely to trigger the 3088.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3084.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

More targets being met, despite the context. Despite the 3094.00 overnight high, Tuesday's 3089.25 open was under Friday's 3092.00 prior high. In place of gapping up above 3092.00, exceeding it through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have qualified. But 3092.00 was still being tested at 9:45. Similar to yesterday's opening position of weakness, that doesn't prevent rallying. And it didn't prevent rallying this morning. Extending higher relentlessly since 9:45 exceeded the 3094.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. And now its 3099.25-3100.75 renewed bias-up target is being tested. Fully tested. That's a lot of buying pressure to expend, so quickly, so early, fulfilling so much buying pressure, all just before Trump's 11:00 China trade speech that is anticipated to be optimistic. Even if we knew with 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} certainty that optimism was fully discounted, the high's overbought RSIs would still be likely to form a choppy topping process before reversing down durably. The rally could still extend, as has been the pattern. But don't tolerate too much pullback because fully discounted can suddenly be overly discounted. And two outstanding positions of weakness would eagerly attract price back down sharply.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3101.75 3100.75 ...would target 3108.00 3107.00 Bias-down: under 3093.50 3092.50 ...would target 3085.25 3084.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's high retraces the post-open upleg. Rallying out of this morning's 3090.25 open was restrained by 3092.00 through 9:45 to create an anchor. That didn't prevent rallying further, but it identified any rally's sponsorship as being weak-handed. And weak-handed moves are likely to fail. In fact, this morning's 3102.00 high only overlapped the 3100.75 upper-end to the morning rally's target range. The target was never otherwise exceeded. And it was retraced entirely back down the open's to 3092.00 anchor. A sign of things to come? Yesterday morning's anchor at 3077.00 would be targeted if the afternoon reversal were to persist. But the 3092.50 bias-down signal has avoided triggering. Back above 3098.00 could extend to fresh session highs, which would all but ensure 3135.00. Not impossible today, but less likely when considering how much optimism this morning's rally already discounted.

Tuesday's open didn't gap up through Friday's 3092.00 high or recover it through 9:45, so it became an anchor, or a position of weakness. That doesn't prevent trending up anyway, but only in the context of its sponsorship being weak-handed, and temporary. Rallying another 10 points up to 3102.00 fulfilled the renewed bias-up's 3099.25-3100.75 target. The balance of the afternoon trended back down to prove the morning's rally had fully discounted optimism ahead of Trump's noon speech. The 3092.00 anchor was retraced by noon, and the final hour was greeted much lower attacking 3081.00, but the close had bounced back up to 3092.00. Tuesday's high was also a new high, probing above two prior sessions' highs without gaining upside traction, which all but requires gapping up to extend the rally. Overbought and oversold RSIs at either end of Tuesday's range were each retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} before reversing back into the range, so neither is very attractive. Retracing the next lower anchor would target Monday's 3077.00 open, which had also provided context for its rally to be retraced eventually. And below 3077.00 is probably an air pocket on the way down to 3066.00, with potential for extending down to 3044.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3096.50 3095.50 ...would target 3101.75 3100.75 Bias-down: under 3086.00 3085.00 ...would target 3078.50 3077.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.