Stock Market Trading Signals - 01-24-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Sunday night's probe under Friday afternoon's 2260.00 lows wasn't rejected, but it was retraced for Monday's open to test Friday afternoon's 2266.00 highs. the retest was rejected abruptly, and the balance of the morning slid sharply to 2251.75. That neutralized the attraction to last Thursday's oversold RSIs at 2253.00. But one more nearby attraction outstanding at 2248.50 didn't prevent the balance of the session from rallying back up to attack 2263.00. Overnight action's new info... Ranging narrowly back down to Friday afternoon's 2260.00 lows only recently tried breaking out. But a shallow surge testing 2264.00 is being retraced back into the range to attack 2260.00. If, then... Yesterday afternoon's recovery expended a lot of energy only to attack unchanged, never returning into positive territory. Trending up this morning all but requires gapping up above yesterday morning's test of 2266.00. There is currently only the glimpse of that threat, recently probing a fresh overnight high before dipping back into the overnight range. Reversing the probe back under overnight lows would likely kill the recovery threat altogether, and resume yesterday morning's decline. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2260.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2256.00 bias-down signal.

Muted opening strength isn't attracting sellers. The 2263.50 opening print did gap up above yesterday afternoon's highs. But it was still several points short of the 2266.00 resistance being tested at yesterday's open. And extending higher post-open wasn't immediate, and it stopped short of touching the 2266.00 bias-up signal. Reactions down held 2262.00. If buyers weren't going to exert much effort, then absorbing them wasn't going to be due much reward. No-bias was triggered, but no offsetting test of the bias-down signal is required, A half-hour rally off the retest of 2262.00 is piercing prior highs up to 2266.00. Too late to trigger bias-up, but recovering it through 10:30 could have invalidated the no-bias. Overlapping it does not qualify. No-bias, or not, probing higher anyway should be doomed to failure. There's room for noise up to yesterday's 2267.50 opening peak. Meanwhile, breaking back under 2263.00 would have room down to the 2256.00 bias-down signal until the bias environment begins lapsing -- and then no support until fresh lows.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2274.25 2269.75 ...would target  2279.75  2275.25 Bias-down: under  2267.75  2263.25 ...would target 2262.00  2257.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour rally rewarding its weak-handed sponsorship. Not testing 2266.00 bias-up signal by 10:15 meant not rejecting it. And that meant no consequence of an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. It also meant not extending above 2266.00 during the no-bias environment. A probe above it was retraced as the bias environment began lapsing, and left no unfinished business below. Now price has extended to fresh session highs into the noon hour. Into the noon hour, and out of it. Fresh session highs are attacking this afternoon's 2275.25 bias-up target to within 2 ticks. And the bias signal doesn't even trigger for another 5 minutes.

The series of higher highs and higher lows is forming a trend, so it's premature to anticipate its reversal down. RSIs diverging negatively may be preparing for the trending to peak, but that doesn't equate to a sell signal -- which would be indicated by a reversal setup or topping pattern.

Originating after the bias environment lapsed is allowing the trend to persist intraday. Regardless, yesterday's pattern considers this rally has premature because of the shallow open. Doomed to failure, or not, new highs and a new high close are possible today. But then so would be a relatively abrupt reaction down.

2278.25 calculable objective tested, check. Held, without closing higher and putting into play any higher objective? Also, check. New high close, check. No unfinished business remains outstanding. No higher attraction can be put into play until Wednesday's close. It couldn't be confirmed until Thursday's close. Intraday action might exploit this as an opportunity to probe higher. Tuesday afternoon's rally did gain traction, so probing higher Wednesday morning is likely, anyway. Extending higher through Wednesday's close would have potential up to 2320.00. Meanwhile, fresh highs are vulnerable to reversing down, hard. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2282.75 2278.25 ...would target  2287.75  2283.25 Bias-down: under  2274.50  2270.00 ...would target  2268.50  2264.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.