VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Stock Market Pre-Open Plan - 7:12 AM
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Previously : Rallying overnight through both bias-up parameters extended pre-open to 4021. Tue's open surged immediately to 4028 and then immediately reacted down. Interim support at 4018 launched a probe above 4031 that was reversed down more substantially to 4007. Noon hour firming became an afternoon rally to fresh highs at 4043.
Overnight price points : Flat-to-lower ranging around 7-week-old downtrending resistance broke lower to 4023. Its reaction is probing back up into the earlier range at 4039.
Catalysts : No econ reports, FOMC events.
Setups/Patterns : Corrective pullback, FOMC events.
Their influences : The overnight low bounced from retracing 61.8% of yesterday afternoon's last upleg... The policy statement for interest rates is released at 2:00 ET and a Fed Chair Q&A begins a half-hour later at 2:30.
Premise : More than retrace 61.8% of yesterday's last upleg, the overnight drop has reversed back up above that leg's 38.2% counterpart, which suggests the pullback is being reversed. It's entirely premature at this moment, but the reaction is also above the 4031 bias-down signal. Its recovery through 10:15 would put into play an offsetting test of the 4044 bias up signal for some last-minute optimism ahead of afternoon FOMC events.
Alternative : Dipping again pre-open could resume the pullback, triggering bias-down to put into play its 4015 target, and inject a little last-minute pessimism.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121 ... DOWN: 4021, 3998, 4081.
Stock Market Morning Strategy - 10:46 AM
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Previously : Flat-to-lower ranging around 7-week-old downtrending resistance broke lower overnight to 4023. Its reaction probed back up into the earlier range.
New price points : Recovering to 4042 was retraced back to the 4031 bias-down signal, pre-open and then post-open down to 4029. The first-15 minutes' range was finally exceeded on the way to attack 4048.
Catalysts : No econ reports, FOMC events.
Setups/Patterns : INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN... FOMC events.
Their influences : The policy statement for interest rates is released at 2:00 ET and a Fed Chair Q&A begins a half-hour later at 2:30.
Triggers/Tactics : The second 15 minutes were encompassed by the first 15's 4029-4037 range, so exiting the second half-hour beyond the first half-hour's range tells us volatility is alive and well going into the FOMC events. That also invalidated the no-bias constraints of remaining between the bias signals. If not for the impending FOMC events, I'd anticipate extending higher. But today that would be last-minute weak-handed sponsorship, so I expect the bias window to behave anyway like a no-bias, and remain range bound.
Alternative : Until violating a pullback limit, let alone triggering a sell signal, extending higher would be credible for trapping weak-handed buyers ahead of negative headline reactions this afternoon.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121 ... DOWN: 4021, 3998, 4081.
Tonight's Market Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4045, targeting 4058.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4030, targeting 4018.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Update - 1:48 PM
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Closing Wrap is EARLY at 3:15 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Flat-to-lower ranging around 7-week-old downtrending resistance broke lower overnight to 4023. Its reaction probed back up into the earlier range to 4042. It was retraced back to the 4031 bias-down signal, pre-open and then post-open down to 4029. The first-15 minutes' range was finally exceeded on the way to attack 4048.
New price points : As expected, the A.M. invalidated no-bias nevertheless behaved like no-bias, and reversed back down to its bias-down signal. Even through it to 4022 coming out of the noon hour. Like this morning, the P.M. bias is also invalidated.
Catalysts : No econ reports, FOMC events.
Setups/Patterns : INVALIDATED BIAS-DOWN... FOMC events.
Their influences : The policy statement for interest rates is released at 2:00 ET and a Fed Chair Q&A begins a half-hour later at 2:30.
Triggers/Tactics : Optimism was restrained this morning, and then joined by pessimism at the very last-minutes before FOMC. Each can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. A favorable headline reaction maintained above 4044 could trend higher through into the close, while still needing to navigate the early part of Powell's Q&A.
Alternative : Reacting down from this last-minute sentiment would not be an overwhelming surprise to market participants, but it would still come from the test of two resistance trendlines and should at least test the 4018 P.M. bias-down target or lower.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121 ... DOWN: 4021, 3998, 4081.
Bias Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : An overnight break lower to 4023 was recovered on the way to a post-open attack on 4048. Its reversal down to 4022 through the noon hour was recovered to fresh highs at 4066 and 4074 on FOMC reactions. All of which was reversed one more time down to 3966.
Catalysts : No econ reports, FOMC events.
Setups/Patterns : Pivot Reversal.
Their influences : Gapping down in a multi-session uptrend, and rejecting a fresh trend high to close back under the gap down's low, tends to extend down without delay.
Premise : A Pivot Reversal setup isn't just bearish, but immediately bearish and tends to extend down without delay. Already extending down so substantially into Wed's close may have stolen a lot of Thu's follow-through, while being vulnerable to an overnight bounce. Recovering 3998-3999 through Thu's open could suggest the Pivot Reversal is inverting into bullish.
Alternative : Extending down without delay would next target the 3940 area, whose break would next target 3884-3888.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3984, targeting 4003.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3954, targeting 3938.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.