Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NOTE: EMAIL ME IF YOU''RE ENCOUNTERING DIFFICULTY ENTERING THE CHARTROOM THIS MORNING. Enter the chaRTroom here Through the prior close... Overnight action''s new info... There culprit appears to be Greece, which apparently is experiencing some sort of cash flow issue, i.e. not news. If, then... First Trade... Gap down to support seems comfortable there. The pre-open test of this morning''s 2090.00 bias-down target was recovered to open at the 2095.00 bias-down signal. Recovering 2097.00 through 9:45 would have made bias-down unlikely to trigger at 10:15. But 2097.00 wasn''t recovered -- or, at best, was still being overlapped. In the same vein, bias-down was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, which did trigger late bias-down. At least, bearish enough to inhibit recovering this morning. But the drop''s sponsorship is still weak-handed. Bias-down triggered late, so its 2090.00 target need not be met. But having tested its target already overnight, testing it again would likely visit 2088.00. Not extending the gap down for an hour isn''t bullish for having delayed lower lows, it''s bearish for having ranged around support so long without attracting buyers. So, the nearest buy signal is above 2097.00 or higher -- I would be skeptical of any rally effort prior to probing some fresh low. (And 2097.00 is being attacked right now) 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap. Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) 30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.Trade Signals - Pre Open - 7:26 AM
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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Wednesday''s gap up from 2090.00 to 2095.50 extended higher, retesting last week''s 2101.25 high. This had created plenty of room for dipping back down to 2095.50 into the morning bias environment''s exit, without damaging the uptrend''s momentum. The afternoon''s bias environment surged higher to test 2105.50. A late dip back under the morning''s high ended just under 2100.00, fulfilling the higher close that last week''s confirmed breakout had put into play. WedEX triggered passively bullish.
Narrow sideways ranging up to 2102.75 began probing lower into and out of Europe''s opens. The drop has steepened and extended to probe not only yesterday''s 2095.50 lows, but to also touch the upper-end of Tuesday''s 2088.00-2090.00 "lower prior highs."
The sponsorship behind yesterday''s late dip was weak-handed. Extending lower overnight can prove to be weak-handed by remaining within the range. And that range''s lower-end is Tuesday''s 2088.00-2090.00 "lower prior highs" -- whose upper-end has been touched. Somehow recovering enough for the post-open action not to print under yesterday''s 2095.50 low would suggest that momentum had reversed up. The longer that a bounce doesn''t recover 2095.50, the likelier it has only refueled sellers to resolve down. If the open''s gap down holds within the 2088.00-2090.00 orbit, then WedEX could become passively bearish by proxy.
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2093.25 would be likely to trigger the 2095.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2097.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2101.25 would be likely at least to test the 2104.75 bias-up signal.
Stock Market Opening Update - 10:46 AM
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Tonight's Market Predictions - 11:58 AM
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2101.50
...would target 2113.50
2106.75
Bias-down: under 2099.75
2093.00
...would target 2194.75
2088.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Daily Spot... Is the bond finally breaking? - 2:27 PM
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Yesterday''s post-close surge to 1.0700 reacted down sharply overnight to 1.0650, but nevertheless recovered it all Thursday and then some to test 1.0810. The 1.0850 area target remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1.0780 as support.
Despite an early rally Thursday to 1208.50, a plunge tested 1194.50 support. It held, but now its break can trigger a new downleg if 1205.00-1208.50 isn''t recovered without delay.
Early strength Thursday to the 16.45 resistance whose recovery would start to signal momentum reversing up, but its reaction down tested the critical 16.10 support that can''t tolerate closing below it.
Thursday morning''s break through 164-04 extended lower, filling the gap back down to Monday''s 163-18 close, and attacking prior lows around 163-00. Reacting up optimistically to 164-00 doesn''t allow the pattern much room or time before extending down more substantially under 162-08.
Wednesday''s test of the 56.00 target reacted down to attack 55.05 before Thursday''s open, which held the 55.20 pullback limit, before reversing up to fresh highs at 57.00. The 57.90 target remains in-play.
Not greeting Thursday''s EIA report from a position of strength, despite having bounced recently to 2.62, left the pattern vulnerable to an initially negative knee-jerk reaction. But also not greeting the.news from a position of weakness made that reaction likely to recover, possibly also launching a durable rally leg. So, reacting down to 2.54 was reversed to fresh highs at 2.69. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm the new rally leg underway. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold 2.60 to maintain the rally''s momentum.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Strategy - 4:31 PM
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2104.00
...would target 2116.50
2110.25
Bias-down: under 2099.75
2093.25
...would target 2094.25
2088.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2108.25
FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2110.25