Stock Market Trading Signals - 07-05-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Despite Thursday's rally attacking 2089.75, Friday morning's surge attacking 2101.00 wasn't destined to extend relentlessly intraday -- regardless of the bullish implications to recovering 2089.75, and despite the prior three intradays pattern. Friday Factors.make afternoon trending less likely. But while they inhibited extending higher, Friday Factors also prevented the intraday pullback from actually reversing the trend back down into the weekend. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's holiday price action first probed above last week's highs to attack 2105.00. That was retraced to attack 2095.00.Monday night's Globex action never really restarted Sunday night's rally effort. Soon a different direction emerged -- sliding to 2090.00 was consolidated shallowly, and then resolved down to 2082.00.. If, then... 2082.00 hasn't printed since Thursday's noon hour. Tuesday's post-open action is vulnerable to extending the overnight slide. In fact, we discussed the potential for correcting down immediately, which could next target 2076.00 or 2071.00. None of which changes whether 2089.75 was recovered, and whether that recovery requires probing fresh highs up to 2125.25. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2082.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2085.00 bias-down target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2093.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2090.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Overnight slide extends to fresh lows. The open was greeted at the 2085.00 bias-down target. Blipping-up to 2086.50 created a slingshot effect that plunged to fresh lows at 2077.50. And that is now probing lower to 2076.75. 2076.75 is within 3 ticks of what is essentially the 2076.00 renewed bias-down target. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged positively at the low. Back above 2080.75 would signal at least a corrective bounce up to the 2085.00 bias-down target. Meanwhile, the trend may extend next down to 2071.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2093.50 2084.75 ...would target  2098.50  2090.00 Bias-down: under  2082.00  2073.50 ...would target 2077.50  2068.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Unable to bounce off of morning lows. Probing under this morning's 2085.00 bias-down target wasn't recovered in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. That essentially put into play the 2076.00 renewed bias-down target.

2076.00 was attacked, tested, retested and probed. It is still being tested as the afternoon bias environment is entered.

Avoiding lower lows is unlikely, despite this afternoon now being a no-bias environment. Whether it's 2073.50 bias-down signal, or down to 2071.00, fresh lows would make a later recovery effort above 2080.00 more credible. The risk in probing lower is in not recovering. The pattern's structure requires recovering from a fresh low to form a durable bottom. But that's also how a new downleg gets underway if not recovered.

Last week's tremendous recovery of the Brexit reaction had been vulnerable to a pullback at any step of the way. By Friday, its potential was to 2076.00 or 2071.00. On Monday, it reached 2072.50. Despite recovering intraday to 2083.50, it's probably not a durable bottom. Recovering a little less a little earlier would have been more credible as strong-handed. So, retesting Tuesday's lows before resuming the rally would help to launch the next upleg. The next upleg remains likely to develop. The pullback into Tuesday's lows originated from having closed Friday above 2089.75. The reward of probing the pre-Brexit high back to 2125.25 remains outstanding, and fulfilling it from this unfinished bottom would be doomed to failure. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2096.50 2088.00 ...would target  2102.75  2094.25 Bias-down: under  2084.50  2076.00 ...would target 2079.50  2071.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.