Stock Market Trading Signals - 07-08-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's bullish scenario began unfolding at the opening ticks. But surging substantially and then triggering bias-up couldn't prevent sliding into the noon hour until the final hour..Holding the session's 2082.00 pullback limit allowed the final hour's 10-point bounce to at least test the morning's lows, but not to recover them. "Unfinished business above" was left outstanding at the morning's 2103.25 bias-up target. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's late rally initially extended a couple of points to 2094.00, but still reacted down into negative territory at 2087.50. Europe's opens triggered more of a spike up than a surge, soon attacking 2097.50. A 7-point slide retraced almost all of the spike, but only briefly, as 2097.50 is now being retested. If, then... Buyers didn't gain traction yesterday, so resuming yesterday morning's rally this morning would require gapping up above yesterday morning's 2102.00 high. That's only another 5-points above the current Globex highs, with a catalyst coming next hour -- the Employment Situation report. By the same token, sellers didn't gain traction yesterday, either, so gapping down in reaction to the payrolls report must open at or under 2082.00 to extend deeper. That's the rally's pullback limit, so any lower would threaten the recovery. This being Friday, attracting sponsorship for extending a knee-jerk reaction may be more difficult than attracting sponsorship for sustaining its reaction. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications are not available ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Yesterday's open was strong-handed buyers, too. At least two elements through this morning's opening 15 minutes of volatility indicated the gap up would hold and the rally would extend. Sellers weren't influencing price significantly, and the period formed uptrending. Just maintaining an opening gap through the open tends to extend further. And further. And further. Any cause for concern would be due linked to yesterday's reaction. Tracking the bullish template didn't prevent reversing back down through the morning and afternoon bias environments. Always suggesting weak-handed sponsorship, and holding the maximum 2082.00 pullback limit - it wasn't destructive, but it was productive. RSIs were slow to get overbought, and the next higher objective at 2115.00 has been attacked to within 5 ticks. The pullback limit was probed for 3 minutes down to 2110.25, and that didn't hold. A shallower pullback than yesterday is still possible, and could still be relatively deep -- like down to 2104.00. Keeping sellers from retaking control should still extend higher today, and not just range sideways.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2127.00 2119.75 ...would target  2132.25  2125.25 Bias-down: under  2120.00  2113.00 ...would target 2114.75  2107.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Fresh highs keeping alive the upside momentum. The post-close pre-Brexit 2119.50 high was the next higher resistance above the 2115.00 objective. It's just a prior high. It's not an objective or target that fulfills buying pressure. But testing it intraday makes closing back under it likely to extend into another deeper detour below. 2119.50 and its bias-up signal 1 tick higher were just touched at 1:30. Too late to invoke the grace period or to trigger, and too shallow to invalidate the no-bias. Probing higher anyway would be "no-bias trending" and doomed to failure. Now having probed a fresh session high during the afternoon bias environment, exiting the bias environment back under a prior high or low could meltdown into the close. Otherwise, be very careful stepping in front of the uptrend.

2089.75 is the lower-end of the pre-Brexit session two weeks ago. Closing above it last Friday had created the requirement to probe that session's upper-end, targeting 2125.25. An interim corrective dip was recovered to close back above 2089.75. And then Friday's rally touched 2125.25. Barely. The final hour only trended down, but it was too late for a durable downleg to begin. There's no higher calculable objective. But a new trend high close on Fridays all but requires an eventual higher close. Nothing can prevent another interim pullback, but it would likely be only a temporary correction. We'll look at this in more detail during Saturday Review, starting at 9:30am ET. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2131.00  2124.00 ...would target  2136.75  2129.75 Bias-down: under  2124.25 2117.25 ...would target  2117.50  2110.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET TESTED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.