Stock Market Trading Signals - 10-25-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Monday's 2145.75 gap up above last week's range formed an anchor setup. Reacting down into its noon hour low held last week's "lower prior highs" down to 2140.50. Bouncing through the afternoon eventually recovered enough to touch the opening print, stopping pessimistically short of touching fresh highs. The close qualifies as a breakout from a multi-session range. The breakout wasn't optimal, since the session never actually broke its intraday pattern of lower lows and lower highs.. Overnight action's new info... Monday afternoon's recovery gradually extended higher overnight. Slowly retracing Monday's anchor setup never seemed optimistic, let alone impatient. The final upleg began at Europe's opens, and probed above yesterday morning's anchor to within 1 tick of the rally's 2150.00 objective. The only sort of sentiment extreme has been by sellers, sliding quickly back down to unchanged at 2144.50 as while Italian bank Monte Paschi plunges. If, then... Extending Monday's rally overnight doesn't necessarily dismiss the potential to form a bearish "session-long decline" setup. It would be triggered by gapping down back under Monday afternoon's 2142.25. The trigger wasn't very far away as of Monday's close, and not much further when fulfilling the 2150.00 objective overnight -- which has been retraced entirely. There's no assurance of retesting the overnight high, let alone extending through it. Probing positive territory post-open would prevent isolating the overnight optimism, and help to avoid what could otherwise be a very bearish day. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2149.00 would be likely to trigger the 2148.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2143.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-open drop fails to hold its probe under prior lows. Sellers threw a lot of stuff at the open. They haven't been rejected, but they failed to complete a bearish setup. Testing the rally's 2150.00 objective overnight had reacted down to 2144.00 and 2142.25. The open only deteriorated further by extending down to probe 2 ticks under yesterday's 2140.50 low. That also included a test of yesterday's 2143.25 bias environment low. Having trended up into yesterday's cash session close, maintaining an open under 2143.25 could form a "session-long decline." Also breaking under yesterday's session low would be extra confirmation.

This was all the open's sellers could bring. Probing under both prior lows was recovered at 9:45 back up to 2144.00, and then up to 2145.75. No-bias was triggered, having avoided a break under the 2141.25 bias-down signal. Having actually tested the bias-down signal before not triggering it, an offsetting test of the 2148.00 bias-up signal is in-play.

That didn't prevent a drop back to within 1 tick of 2141.25, just before 10:30. Any lower any later would have invalidated the no-bias signal. That was avoided, and back above 2143.75 should launch the next recovery leg. But be careful under 2141.25 (being tested now) in case a deeper detour is underway.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2149.00  2143.00 ...would target  2154.00  2148.00 Bias-down: under  2143.50 2137.50 ...would target  2137.50  2131.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Testing the next lower support. When yesterday's dip to last week's "lower prior highs" at 2140.50 was recovered above yesterday's opening high -- despite being done overnight -- there became no bullish reason to revisit last week's lower prior highs. The resolution would be to probe lower.

Today's retest of 2140.50 could have escaped this consequence if its test were isolated to the open. But it wasn't. Now 2135.50 is being tested. That's the next "lower prior high," and the next opportunity to launch a rally leg.

Holding the open's test of its bias-down signal did put into play an offsetting test of its 2148.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the bias environment under the bias-down target would have invalidated the objective. Instead, it becomes "unfinished business above" that requires an eventual retest.

Probing under this morning's 2141.25 bias-down signal before the bias environment begins lapsing is called "no-bias trending." It requires being retraced at least to the bias-up signal, and often also visits the 10:15 print, which was 2144.00.

Opportunity to rally from lower prior highs. And unfinished business above, two of them. That's a lot of bullish potential. And it could be realized today.

Meanwhile, isolating the test of 2150.00 to overnight price action has created significant downside vulnerabilities. Exiting the noon hour in decline or triggering this afternoon's 2137.50 bias-down signal could point down into late-afternoon.

Chipping away at the 2135.50 support of "lower prior highs" suggests that even the most bullish scenario is likely to probe lower before recovering. Not necessarily, but the corollary is to be careful if buying a recovery that begins immediately. "Unfinished business above" does make resolving up possible, if not also likely. A test of Tuesday morning's 2148.00 bias-up signal was left outstanding but not invalidated. The open formed an anchor (again), making at least a probe above its 2145.75 high likely. Tuesday was an odd session both for the powerful mixed signals it produced, and for them seemingly neutralizing each other's influence. Forming a "session-long decline" setup without triggering it is as bullish as it tends to be bearish. But it wasn't. Meanwhile, isolating the probe above Monday's high to the overnight can be very bearish. Barely. Opinions are always varied in the market. They're not very polarized, not yet. But there seems to be much less patience than the current trading range suggests. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2149.75 2143.75 ...would target  2156.50  2150.50 Bias-down: under  2139.50  2133.50 ...would target 2133.75  2127.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.