Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's post-open intraday drop from 3149.50 down to 3133.00 extended overnight through its likely objective at 3127.75 to also fulfill potential at last Tue-Wed 3117.00-3118.00 "lower prior highs." All of which was retraced pre-open to Monday's late 3142.00 high, and none of which delayed the open from dropping right back down to 3125.50. Being a preliminary indication, holding 3125.50 made a bounce likely to at least 3137.50, which actually got to 3143.00. Volatility hibernated until the final hour's sudden 10-point drop back down to 3127.75, and a bounce into the close up to 3133.00 and 3136.00 -- essentially unchanged from Monday's closes. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Post-close action pushed higher into early Globex strength up to 3138.25. A pullback to 3135.50 was accelerated down to 3129.50 by China tariff headlines. The headline segment was retraced by midnight. The initial swing was overshadowed by Europe's opens surging 10 points up to 3143.50 -- all of which was retraced within the hour by 12 points down to 3131.25. For all of its choppiness, unchanged is now being tested. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) For all of its choppiness and wide ranging, last night's price action all but ensures that broad opinion will be reacting to this afternoon's FOMC events. Meanwhile, that same choppiness reflects the difficulty in getting a broad range of opinion to break out of a range. Also, that while still vulnerable to resuming the decline down to 3110.00, that's not developing organically. Neither is a gap up above 3139.00 which would allow this morning to rally. Not trending out of the open might barely even try trending before FOMC without a headline to trigger it. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3133.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3130.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3137.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3139.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Too late to be invalidated, but falling anyway. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon's 3139.25 high was necessary to have confidence in a rally this morning. A pre-open recovery up to 3141.25 tried, but the open was greeted back down at 3138.00 on the way down to 3134.50.

No gap up, unlikely to rally this morning.

Actually, trending beyond either end of the range this morning is already unlikely.

The open's slide held its 3-4 minute low and snapped back up through the pre-open high to 3143.00. The 3139.75 bias-up signal triggered cleanly at 10:15. That unlikely trending attempt is now resolving down. Its retracement to the 3139.75 bias-up signal came too late to invalidate it, but it's being probed later anyway, now testing 3136.00. So, this morning is all the more likely to be caught in its choppy range. There's potential for attacking or testing its lower-end at the 3130.00 overnight lows -- especially since the pre-10:15 high hasn't yet been exceeded, i.e. the bias-up signal hasn't yet produced anything that wasn't already done before triggering. Without exceeding the pre-10:15 high, bias-up can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment under its 3130.00 bias-down signal. Otherwise, holding that end of the range through the bias environment would make this morning's 3146.75 bias-up target "unfinished business" that assists at least some upside reaction to this afternoon's FOMC events.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3140.00 3140.75 ...would target 3146.75 3147.50 Bias-down: under 3130.50 3131.00 ...would target 3125.00 3125.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Waiting for FOMC. This morning's bias-up triggered after the open had recovered up to 3143.00. That pre-10:15 high was never exceeded, meaning that the bias-up was never productive. But that doesn't invalidate it. Invalidating it required exiting the bias environment under its 3130.00 bias-down signal, which was hardly even attacked. The 3146.75 bias-up target becomes "unfinished business." This morning's reaction down got to 3133.75. Oversold RSIs there required a retest, and they have been retested. Their retest came after hovering above 3133.75, and 3133.75 was only touched. Usually, that optimism is followed by actually probing fresh lows. It's not required, but I'd like to see at least 3133.00 touched, if not also probed (it's finally being attacked now). Regardless, the 2:00 and 2:30 FOCM events aren't being greeted from either a position of strength or weakness. I'm looking for wide ranging trending attempts, but need to see proof of any attempt gaining traction to extend instead of it being reversed back into the range.

The volatility of Wednesday's FOMC events was a little underwhelming, except for its knee-jerk reaction to the policy statement. Overnight wide-ranging choppiness had dictated a strategy to fade trending attempts. That included the morning's 3139.75 bias-up signal, which triggered AFTER printing the morning's 3143.00 high. Its 3146.75 bias-up target becomes "unfinished business." Ineffectual optimism at the morning's 3133.50 low had suggested the knee-jerk reaction to FOMC would be optimistic, too. Its reaction extended to greet the final hour at 3144.50. But 3146.75 remains outstanding above, as the final hour only ranged sideways back down to 3138.50-3139.50. I'm still suspicious of the weak-handed optimism that greeted the FOMC events. That suspicion would become irrelevant after extending Wednesday afternoon's recovery through Thursday's open. Until then, post-open selling Thursday morning could extend back down to Wednesday's 3130.00-3133.00 lows. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3142.00 3143.50 ...would target 3150.50 3151.00 Bias-down: under 3135.00 3135.50 ...would target 3127.25 3127.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.