Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping down 6 points Thursday to 2264.50 extended through the morning. The prior three sessions' lows were probed down to 2248.50. Already reversing up before noon, the entire afternoon rallied to a last-minute touch of 2267.00. Late-afternoon swings all overlapped the 2264.50 open, stopping short of Wednesday's 2271.50 close. Traction was gained by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high, and then entering the final hour higher. Overnight action's new info... More like, overnight lack-of-action. Thursday's huge swing went immediately into hibernation. Ranging very narrowly between 2264.25-2266.25 has only recently tried probing higher. The probe was even shallower than than the range. Barely piercing yesterday's last-minute high by a couple of ticks proved untenable, as price soon dipped back into the narrow range. If, then... This morning's bullish scenario would already be rallying through Friday's open, and overcome the gap at Wednesday's 2270.50 close. Recovering it could easily gravitate back up to the highs, with counter-trend sponsorship difficult to generate ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Sponsorship is difficult to generate all around, and 2271.50 is meanwhile resistance. Immediately rallying out of yesterday's entirely negative session would already be suspect. A more bullish scenario would back-and-fill initially, with a relatively shallow temporary dip to 2257.50. The bearish scenario would extend under Thursday's noon hour "lower prior highs" at 2254.25. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning's 2271.50 bias-us up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2262.00 bias-down signal. The same 2266.00 level serves as both bias signal's preliminary indicator because of the extremely narrow overnight rally between them.

Bias-up narrowly avoided. Too narrowly. Delaying a post-open rally would have been likely in order to stretch the rubber band down to 2257.50. There was no reason to delay rallying if the pre-open dip to 2262.75 were going to suffice in its place. Post-open action did immediately surge. Filling the gap at Wednesday's 2270.25 close was worked through gradually up to 2273.50. But the 2271.50 bias-up signal was overlapped in time to trigger the grace period.

Bias-up did not trigger, but did it hold? Probing under it down to 2269.50 wasn't recovered at 10:30, which is a "late no-bias." This puts into play an offsetting test of the 2262.00 bias-down signal.

One important observation to that: A 1-tick difference prevented touching the bias-up signal at 10:30. That 1 tick prevented triggering noN-bias, which would have prevented putting into play any target.

Fluctuating narrowly for the next half-hour would be just like a typical noN-bias. And a typical noN-bias would then often behave as if it has just triggered bias-up. Regardless of its timing, I'm giving a benefit of the doubt to any break beyond a 2269.50-2272.50 range. A valid break either way would likely extend into the afternoon.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2278.50 2273.25 ...would target  2283.25  2278.25 Bias-down: under  2271.00  2266.00 ...would target 2266.00  2260.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Open's surge has backed-and-filled, after all. An opening surge of such great proportion would typically back-and-fill into the afternoon, on any other day except Friday. Today's post-surge action hovered just under its high. The no-bias seemed suspiciously noN-bias when it triggered, and hovering was a typically noN-bias characteristic. But also typical for noN-bias hovering is to exit the bias environment trending through the bias signal. That didn't happen. Only another brief dip to a fresh low -- still above yesterday's range. A durable downleg would have begun already. So, a later downleg would likely recover. No downleg is required, and neither is the rally required to resume. But resuming the rally this afternoon remains the likelier resolution.

Thursday afternoon's traction was fulfilled not just by Friday morning's surge, but by maintaining its probe above Thursday's highs. Thursday's entire session had developed in negative territory, so it was a weak base for launching a rally. Perhaps that was as responsible as pre-holiday illiquidity for inhibiting the surge from extending higher. Regardless, it will be partially responsible for causing this leg to reverse down sharply if first extends to probe new highs. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

REMINDER: No Saturday Review this weekend. Try to enjoy the weekend, anyway!