Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Sun's gap down to the 4074 bias-down signal extended down relentlessly to 4040. Bouncing into the open extended to 4078 but still triggered bias-down signal. Bounces to lower highs were each retraced, too, extending through the close to fresh lows at 4030.
Overnight price points : Pinballing between the 4043 bias-up signal and 4038 bias-down signal bounced optimistically into Europe's opens, only to snap back down through the 4015 bias-down target to 4008. Its reaction is finally bouncing to 4023.
Catalysts : Chicago PMI / Consumer Confidence, Earnings ongoing, FOMC/CBs anxiousness.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Intraday accumulation, Month-end window dressing.
Their influences : Mon's intraday timing windows had isolated probes under relevant support of 4040-4044, until closing under them all. This opened the door to 3987 unless Tue's open gaps up (not indicated) or a timing window lapses back above 4040-4044... Month-end portfolio window dressing tends to inject volatility into the last afternoon of the month.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Ultimately closing under and 4040-4044 opens the door to attractions extending down to 3987. A shallow bounce to only 4044 and already extending sharply lower overnight reflect pessimism that is largely unrestrained. This makes the eventual low likelier to be within the range down to 3987, and likelier to be brief before reversing back up to resume the ongoing rally.
Alternative : Bouncing post-open without recovering relevant resistance and delaying the decline for too long could refuel it for extended targets.
Levels : UP: 4052, 4101, 4121... DOWN: 4022, 3992.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Pinballing between the 4043 bias-up signal and 4038 bias-down signal bounced optimistically into Europe's opens, only to snap back down through the 4015 bias-down target to 4008, where a bounce developed.
New price points : Thee bounce was consolidating at the 4028 bias-down signal where it greeted 8:30's econ report. Surging through the 4044 overnight high and its bias-up signal then ranged between 4035-4050 through the first hour before breaking higher to now probe the 4057 bias-up target.
Catalysts : Chicago PMI / Consumer Confidence, Earnings ongoing, FOMC/CBs anxiousness.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-UP... Intraday accumulation, Month-end window dressing, Already recovered.
Their influences : Mon's intraday timing windows had isolated probes under relevant support of 4040-4044, until closing under them all. This opened the door to 3987 unless Tue's open gaps up (not indicated) or a timing window lapses back above 4040-4044... Month-end portfolio window dressing tends to inject volatility into the last afternoon of the month... Not a requirement, but a vulnerability, that often an already recovered overnight drop will be duplicated to some degree intraday.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Overnight's initially shallow bounce, downward trend, and deep drop all reflected extreme pessimism that that made the eventual low likely to be sooner rather that later and steeper rather than shallow. Greeting the open back in positive territory suggests the defensive posturing ahead of tomorrow's FOMC is done and an afternoon rally can develop.
Alternative : The already recovered overnight drop likes to be duplicated to some degree, which would be likely if the noon hour were entered back in decline.
Levels : UP: 4052, 4101, 4121... DOWN: 4022, 3992.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

TUE P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4066, targeting 4077.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4048, targeting 4036.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.