Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 06-14-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's open gapped up well above Monday's 2427.50 highs to 2433.00. A probe up to 2436.00 was retraced during the morning's bias environment back down to its 2429.25 bias-up signal. It recovered, and each remaining timing window trended up to higher and higher highs. The last half-hour touched 2439.25, which mostly recovered after dipping back down to 2435.50. Overnight action's new info... An overnight pullback had room down to 2433.00-2434.00 to maintain the rally's momentum. The low came within 1 point. Trending back down retested 2435.50 by midnight. Ranging narrowly around it began firming into and out of Europe's opens. The slope hasn't steepened, but it has been relentless, while trending through yesterday's high to touch 2441.25. If, then... Yesterday's rally gained no traction for its efforts. So, extending higher this morning requires gapping up, which is indicated. At least, that can help to contain a post-open dip. A post-open dip can be avoided by exceeding any resistance that is touched during the open. This is especially important when gapping up. Not already reversing down at Wednesday's open could extend the rally with little or no interruption to 2445.00 if not also to 2553.00. Overbought RSIs at Friday morning's 2443.50 high require a retest, and there's also a new high close outstanding. Meanwhile, this being expiration week, WedEX will trigger at today's close. First things, first -- pre-open econ reports will be perceived as either encouraging or dissuading this afternoon's anticipated rate hike. A lull between the morning and afternoon action wouldn't be surprising. But this afternoon should be especially fun with Yellen's quarterly Q&A. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2441.00 would be likely to trigger the 2440.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2437.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Wednesday at San for Wednesday's morning market tour overnight events not very eventful anywhere but London certainly not as eventful as in London with basically a Towering Inferno that is a horrible scene in horrible story and folding it doesn't seem to be affecting the market the or European market eventually but the overnight dip had room down to 24 33 34 before challenging the upside momentum that was in place yesterday upside momentum from having maintained a gap up above the prior session and improving it through the day although no traction was gained for the effort two different looks no traction was gained for the effort because the afternoon bias environment lapsed 2:30 elapsed at 2:30 with in the noon hours range right at its upper end but with Annette and the final hour wasn't entered any higher maybe lower the 310 320 window did Trend up but not too fresh hi and it was combined with either signal so the only way to extend the rally today without interruption is to Gap up Gap up above yesterday's high which is indicated indicated as you can see yesterday's high 2434 3039 just need to Gap and down or not down under 36 37 38 3775 to avoid triggering order know in advance for probably not going to trigger by 145 that happens to be the room Friday so there's some challenging resistance there as well Friday morning from the morning any structural element that stuff too can be exceeded do they have any 15 triggered by us up 24 4025 although that would just create an attraction that has to be tested not necessarily be tested right away we've got over but our size at Friday's hi we've got outstanding pattern that's been telling us the whole context is awaiting the very least one more new High clothes which will want to see above not just above yesterday close which was a new trend high or a new high but above any prior intraday high like Friday so the stuff that's in trench this before other elements other insights that we've been getting that have been telling like the Dow index SPX relative performances have been warning us this time is going to be different but we can get up through Fridays hi if they open is successfully navigated to 45 don't want to get too out there but there's potential 253 or higher so also and one final note here today's Wednesday Today is Wednesday of expiration week and so we have a wed x indicator that is likely to trigger gapping up pretty much ensure that whatever happens today we're going to have enough information qualifying information to trigger a bias a wed x biosignal that apply to Friday afternoon and Monday morning so in this pattern that is so long before that though much more relevant and much more of a wild card will be this afternoon's FMC policy statement and Fed chair Yellen quarterly Q&A those are fun to trade so be prepared for those and long before those is this morning we've got a couple of economic reports we have CPI and retail sales these are consumer-oriented and they reflect inflation or inflationary perceptions and I suppose FMC it's been meeting already knows these and has or has insight into them and it's already decided what they're going to do today but the market will be made aware at least of of some new data that are going to help to anticipate whether or not the expected rate hike is going to happen so should be some volatility before the open so this Gap up that's indicated this Gap up that is testing a higher priority is not big tin you post open and if the reports were to trigger extending higher then we could be looking at 2445 or more quite a bit yesterday confirming a break out another words from a multi-session rains it's a waiting at least a third lower clothes and does have meanwhile some lower attractions is still ranging gold barely recovered back above 12 6850 end of the 12 6 850-6958 area that's resistance as much as it support when it's being probed it is chipping away at that support really needs to close back above 1272 7252 indicate that this has been absorbed and it tried overnight 72 was tested but we're slipping back into negative territory here silver which has led the way down is bouncing it has room to bounce it has room to bounce and it is bouncing a couple $0.03 short of 17 his recovery would at least beginner retracement of this down leg we're going to need to bottom before actually reversing if a bounce is going to develop into resuming the rally it's premature to just reverse that Trend backup Longmont chipping away at its own support 153 29 but not closing under it or overlapping it in any case so still potential to avoid a deeper dip still potential to produce a bigger balance before rolling over if that's the intent and kind of mixed bag coming into the fomc meeting with that support chipped away if it were a knee-jerk reaction down for instance - 150 - 2223 that could be that could be quickly absorbed and launched another rally leg if there's a need jerk reaction up to 150 for 16 it's already been tested really no reason to return to 154 16 this point other than to extend the correct of balance to 155 o4 Sears a lot of room for playing here head of loan into the news this afternoon crude oil weaker and it bounced yesterday AP reported after the close indicated to gap down it's been down to 70 to 4572 having fill this Gap or retested Monday's Gap up above prioritize pretty helpful to forming a bottom not until we finishing about I'm at forming a bottom if the Gap under prior Lowe's can be tested first I won't got to buy signal traced out here 4620 basically 4615 4620 but we'll see what we can do about lowering that if the low is tested and then finally natural gas which did everything it was supposed to do if it wasn't going to trigger this by signal which had been attacked a couple times but never triggered if it wasn't going to trigger it in a timely fashion which it did not then we knew we were going to retest last week slows well we have her tested last week slows we were tested them yesterday didn't close above the low or at least reject the test to have any degree of confidence that this pattern would be playing out it still could play out but it's apparently needed a flesh something else out or it is not playing out at all so the Buy Signal doesn't really change need to actually hold 295 which is being probed here overnight and clothes back above 301 alright any questions let me know I'm going to end the recording here if there's any questions or supposed to determine I will see you before they open good luck today .

Pre-open recovery too much too bear. The overnight rally had extended to 2442.25 when news broke the shooting outside Washington, D.C. Its 4-point reaction down to 2438.25 was reversed back up quickly. Too quickly, before any accumulative activity could develop. That triggered a warning in the chaRTroom. It also triggered a reaction down. Friday's 2443.50 high had been attacked to within 1 tick. Reacting down through the open has returned to the 2435.00 overnight low, now piercing it by 2 ticks. Opening above the 2440.25 bias-up signal and not triggering it has put into play an offsetting test of the 2433.00 bias-down signal. Testing it before the afternoon FOMC events will be likely so long as interim bounces hold any test of 2438.00.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2442.50 2440.00 ...would target  2447.75  2445.25 Bias-down: under  2435.25  2432.75 ...would target 2429.75  2427.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Defensively postured. Sort of. A small capitulative leg completed this morning's test of its 2433.00 objective. Its attraction below is neutralized. The reaction up tested 2436.00 and 2438.00 a couple of times each. An inflection point at 2437.50 was tested, but not triggered. Anxiousness ahead of the 2:00 ET FOMC announcement is the likely culprit for only consolidating. Neutralizing the attraction below is not an optimal position of strength to greet the news. Upside potential remains intact anyway, due to the proximity to Friday's 2443.50 high and having stopped pessimistically short of touching it pre-open. The 2:30 Q&A by Fed chair Yellen will also be influential to price action. All of the day's surprises should be resolved by the time of our 3:33 Market Wrap.

The market wanted to trade higher on the FOMC news. So much so that it attacked last Friday's 2443.50 high before the open. Reacting down on the Washington-DC news was quickly recovered to attack Friday's high even closer. The recovery was too quick, and the morning was spent declining and consolidating. The afternoon's news greeted a narrow range that didn't react much initially. A blip-down to 2434.00 snapped back up to attack 2441.00, but only to drop back down into the morning's consolidation. Like the policy statement itself, Yellen's Q&A wasn't greeted from a position of strength. So, if buyers can't be attracted to the mountain, then the market drops to where they are. That was likely nearer to the afternoon's 2427.25 bias-down target. It was probed by more than 1 point, filling the gap back down to Monday's close. Bars only overlapped the target while RSIs diverged positively. Its reaction up triggered a buy signal above 2429.50 and extended up to 2437.75. Wednesday's pre-open high nearly neutralized the attraction to last week's overbought RSIs, but it remains outstanding. As does the requirement for one more new high close. Meanwhile, rejecting positive territory in favor of negative territory has formed a passively bearish WedEX. That doesn't require dipping any deeper before Friday afternoon. Remember, trends rarely reverse AT an expiration, even a Quadruple Witch like this week. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2441.25 2438.75 ...would target 2447.50 2445.00 Bias-down: under  2434.50  2432.00 ...would target  2429.00  2426.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.