Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 06-22-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's "inside day" opened at 2079.50, well below its 2086.00 overnight high. Extending down into and out of Yellen's remarks soon found support upon filling the gap back to Monday's close down to 2074.00. Rallying through the afternoon bias environment's exit peaked within 1 tick of 2086.00, reacting back down to 2079.50. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at 2070.75. Overnight action's new info... Initially dipping a little deeper to 2077.00 gradually retraced much of Tuesday's late dip, surging to 2084.25 at Europe's opens. Reacting down sharply to 2078.25 was recovered entirely, blipping up momentarily to attack yesterday's high within 3 ticks. If, then... Brexit and Yellen are again today's main foci. Their near-term influence is fluid, but it is also expiring. The second half of Yellen's semi-annual congressional testimony won't be hanging over the market beyond noon. And Brexit's results can become history after tomorrow evening. Yesterday morning's reaction to Yellen's rate hike defense was short-lived -- today's re-run could be very similar to last week's FOMC policy statement by rallying temporarily into this morning's comments. Brexit can only surprise bearishly, with the Ladbrokes / Betfair lines averaging 3.5-1 remain and 9-1 leave. The market still seems interested in retesting Monday's 2092.50 high, as a detour on the way back down to 2070.75 and lower. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be likely to trigger the 2086.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2081.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up trying to probe higher, late. Gapping up a little to 2082.50 was extended to attack and to probe 2085.00, stopping pessimistically short of touching the 2085.75 pre-open high. Seeing a pattern? The 2085.75 pre-open high had stopped pessimistically short of touching yesterday afternoon's high. Which had stopped pessimistically short of touching its pre-open high. Each potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. And all suggesting the eventual credible break would almost literally explode higher. The negative knee-jerk reaction down to 2081.75 on Yellen's remarks was even shallower than yesterday. The 2086.00 bias-up signal was being attacked to within 1 tick through 10:15, so no-bias triggered. It was being overlapped at 10:30, so no-bias wasn't invalidated. Nevertheless, 2086.00 is being probed up to 2090.00. And the probe above 2086.00 almost literally exploded higher, which fulfills the characteristic for a credible breakout from this pattern. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought, so any pullback will need to recover. The move was likely, although it could have been delayed until this afternoon. It was delayed just long enough to be "no-bias trending" that will require being retraced eventually down to 2086.00. That might be this morning, or it may come after testing Monday morning's 2092.50 high by 2 points.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2097.25 2088.75 ...would target  2102.75  2094.25 Bias-down: under  2089.00  2080.50 ...would target 2082.25  2073.75 Signal status:BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Increased Brexit support triggers slide. Monday morning's 2092.50 high was attacked to within 6 ticks. Any room for testing it up to 2094.50 has been rendered moot. A pro-Brexit poll result was released, triggering a plunge to 2084.25. Back under 2087.00 was likely to test 2084.50. But back above 2087.50 was needed to reinstate the rally. Touching it reversed won to test 2080.50 and then 2076.50.

2080.50 is also this afternoon's bias-down signal, and it triggered. The 2073.75 bias-down target is in-play. Its test should also visit the "unfinished business below" outstanding from yesterday at 2070.75.

We have no control over the headlines, let alone their timing. Regardless of any confidence in actually probing above Monday's highs -- which is less confident now, since the attraction up to Monday's highs is mostly satisfied -- don't take any trending for granted .

Janet, who? Gapping up and absorbing a negligible reaction to Yellen still failed to trigger Wednesday morning's bias-up signal. No-bias trending above it attacked Monday morning's 2092.50 high to within 6 ticks. Remain, what? An anti-Brexit poll reversed that effort, eventually probing negative territory and triggering the afternoon's bias-down signal. Afternoon ranging probed fresh lows at 2075.25, a compelling hold-short with "unfinished business below" at 2073.75 and 2070.75. Although not required, a more thorough test of Monday's 2092.50 high can't be discounted, or probing above it by another 2 points. Testing 2073.75 and 2070.75 -- whether overnight, or early Thursday -- would still have room down to 2069.00 before suggesting otherwise. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2092.75 2084.25 ...would target  2098.25  2089.75 Bias-down: under  2082.25  2073.75 ...would target 2077.00  2068.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.