Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 10-07-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... The overnight slide had not been dramatic. But it was persistent, extending through Thursday's open, and through the morning. A bullish headline crossed at a very opportune moment, as the gap back down to Tuesday's 2143.50 was being filled to neutralize its attraction. Its sudden and steep reaction was also substantial, surging 10 points to attack 2157.00 into the noon hour. Whether anxiousness ahead of the Employment Situation report made the dramatic reaction possible, that anxiousness is probably responsible for inhibiting the balance of the session. Narrow ranging into the close was followed by a blip-up to 2157.75. Overnight action's new info... Being post-close, the fresh high was irrelevant, and it was retraced into the Globex open. Its retracement extended down to 2149.50 as the British Pound flash-crashed. Price action has otherwise been less of a participant and more of an observer to the fireworks, centering around 2149.50 while ranging choppily between 2148.00-2153.75. If, then... Having neutralized the attraction below at the gap down to Tuesday's 2143.50 close, there's no bullish reason to retest it. It's less likely to attract price down, but also less likely to offer support if retested -- unless its retest were isolated, like only probing it momentarily in reaction to this morning's Employment Situation report. Meanwhile, the upside potential remains entirely valid, if not also likely, especially after two-three days of "ineffectual pessimism" at 2156.50 resistance. At least an obligatory probe above it has become increasingly likely. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] There are no preliminary levels ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Still too little optimism to expect a new downleg. The gap back up to last Friday's 2160.00 area close remains unfilled. Probing it pre-open does not qualify. More so, its pre-open probe was in reaction to a headline. The gap up testing 2159.00 still represented restrained optimism. So, reacting down -- no matter how substantially -- can still be recovered. This morning's reaction down was 13 points, attacking the 2145.75 bias-down target to within 2 ticks. The 2151.25 bias-down signal triggered late, and was barely confirmed at 10:30. Actually fulfilling the target would be likelier to hold than to break lower, which would target 2140.75. Rallying this morning back above 2151.25 would be difficult, being a Friday when the morning bias tends to persist through the noon hour. Regardless of how and when it might begin, the bias-down target could be ignored, and the afternoon could simply gravitate higher.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2149.00 2142.50 ...would target  2154.00  2147.75 Bias-down: under  2143.25  2137.00 ...would target 2138.25  2131.75 Signal status:LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour hovering at morning lows. The open's drop from 2157.50 down to 2146.25 had consolidated throughout the bias environment. Its bounces became shallower, and the consolidation broke lower when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Much lower. A 10-point plunge was already being retraced into the noon hour. The plunge's retracement measured 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} before returning to attack the plunge's low. Ranging through the noon hour has repeatedly threatened the lows. The only attempt to break lower was barely 3 minutes old before surging back up to the afternoon's 2142.50 bias-up signal. 2142.50 was touched at 1:20 to invoke the grace period. Its recovery through 1:30 would trigger late bias-up. Also recovering 2143.50 by 1:30 (being tested now) would be helpful confirmation. Otherwise, a late no-bias environment could still test its 2137.00 bias-down signal.

Friday's opening surge stopped short of testing the pre-open reaction to payrolls, which had touched 2161.50. It even stopped short of filling the gap back to last Friday's 2160.00 area close. The restrained optimism didn't prevent a steep intraday dip. But it makes me suspect whether the dip can extend. Already, the reaction's second downleg has been retraced. That was the 10-point drop which appeared suddenly when the morning bias environment began lapsing. The afternoon retraced it. But it wasn't actually reversed -- and it could have been. All of which is interesting for anticipating intraday action. The context is somewhat bullish from a contrarian perspective, as rally efforts are stopping short of their failures being predictive. That doesn't mean continuing to chip away at support won't eventually break lower, only that recoveries remain likely for now. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

I'll send login instructions overnight for the weekend's Saturday Review.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2158.00 2151.25 ...would target  2162.75  2156.50 Bias-down: under  2149.75  2143.50 ...would target 2145.00 2138.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.