Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 11-04-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Recovering from sharply lower overnight lows didn't held Thursday morning trigger bias-up, despite testing the bias-up signal. And only ranging choppily throughout the morning didn't prevent the afternoon from triggering bias-down. The overnight attack on the decline's 2082.00 target to within a couple of points had made it likely to be probed if ever revisited, and Thursday afternoon probed it by a couple of points. A very late bounce to a couple of points back above 2082.00 was enough to avoid "hold-short" although oversold RSIs accompanied the low. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's late bounce initially firmed, and eventually attacked 2087.00. The impending Employment Situation may be responsible (finally) for inhibiting trending. Hovering into Europe's opens has since dipped back down to within 3 ticks of yesterday's 2079.75 low. If, then... If Friday's Employment Situation was influential Thursday, then it caused pessimism. That can be bullish from a contrarian perspective, by discounting an unfavorable reaction and stealing sellers' thunder. That wouldn't preclude there being an initially negative knee-jerk reaction, especially if the room for noise under 2082.00 down to 2077.50 hasn't yet been touched. The target meanwhile remains in-play. Regardless, the weekend's impending illiqiudity can cut either way. Maintaining a gap up above Thursday afternoon's last relative high at 2088.00 could set a very bullish tone for the day. But the current trend is not a recovery's friend. It's difficult to reverse eight consecutive days of probing each prior session's low without another fresh intraday low. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered before an Employment Situation report. PROGRAMMING NOTE #1: There is no Saturday Review this weekend, so we'll review the bigger picture during this afternoon's Market Wrap... PROGRAMMING NOTE #2: Market Wrap will be done during the session's last half-hour, specific timing TBA.

Wide swings all centered around unchanged. Greeting the Employment Situation report at unchanged around 2084.00 eventually surged to test 2088.00. Its reaction down attacked 2080.00 through the open. Another surge attacked 2088.00, reversing down again  to 2079.00. All centered around 2084.00, repeatedly attracted back to and through it. This market does not want to sit still. But it also seems incapable of rallying, having held two tests of yesterday's last relative high. Rallying is not to be confused with probing prior highs. For example, holding a test of this morning's 2082.00 bias-down signal puts into play an offsetting test of the 2088.75 bias-up signal. Probing it could also test 2090.00-2091.00. But that wouldn't be a rally. and it would remain likely to resolve down. A couple of observations. First, Post-open lows stopped optimistically short of each other, if not probing lower with only errant ticks. Their bounces all failed, making that "ineffectual optimism." Not a durable bottom. Second, at least three of the first hour's five 15-minute checkpoints all overlapped 2084.00 / unchanged. This tends to be difficult to trend away from, although not without aggressive attempts. Back under 2082.00 at 10:30 would invalidate the no-bias which triggered at 10:15. Fresh lows at 2077.50 remain likely, despite the fresh low already having neutralized the attraction to yesterday's oversold RSIs. Meeting the target this morning would have still allowed time for countertrend sponsorship to absorb the drop, and for 2084.00 / unchanged to attract price back up for a possible bottom. Instead, the attraction to fresh lows remains outstanding, and testing it this weekend could open the dam to a flood of selling into the weekend. With apologies to Buckminster Fuller, to stand still is to fall.So it is with bouncing shallowly and permaturely.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2096.25 2091.00 ...would target  2101.25  2096.25 Bias-down: under  2188.25  2083.25 ...would target 2082.25 2077.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

REMINDER: Market Wrap will begin early at 3:33pm ET, and it will include the Bigger Picture review since there is NO Saturday Review this weekend. Holding the 2082.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2088.75 bias-up signal. And its test was likely to include a test of 2091.00. Ultimately 2192.25 was touched, but always overlapping 2091.00. And it was retraced back down to 2087.50. But the vulnerability to reversing back down to and through the lows remains outstanding. The noon hour probed fresh highs, and the 2091.00 bias-up signal has triggered. Sellers are likely marginalized for the day. Already backing off from testing the 2096.25 bias-up target would make the final hour vulnerable to reversing down. Again, reversing intraday trending on Fridays at all is very unusual, but there have been recent exceptions. And there's still that attraction below...

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2090.50 2085.00 ...would target  2096.25  2090.75 Bias-down: under  2083.00  2077.50 ...would target  2077.50  2072.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP RENEWED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.