Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 12-15-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's FOMC reaction followed a morning dip that had recovered to trigger the afternoon's 2066.75 bias-up signal. The knee-jerk reaction fulfilled the 2271.75 bias-up target and attacked Tuesday's 2273.00 high. The next hour was exactly different, plunging 29 points to 2243.00. Even before retracing the final hour's bounce, sellers had gained traction from exiting the bias environment under the noon hour's low, and the proxy window trended down to fresh lows. Overnight action's new info... Bouncing back from Wednesday's late dip settled into a relatively narrow, directionless, choppy range between 2251.00-2257.00. The upper-end is essentially this morning's bias-up signal. It was being tested again when the BOE policy statement (unchanged) triggered a drop back to the range's lower-end. And slightly lower, soon piercing under 2250.00. If, then... Yesterday's lows probed twice under Monday's 2247.00 prior lows, and managed barely not to close below them -- a 2 point margin by the cash session close, and 5 points at the futures close. That prior low was itself the product of testing "lower prior highs," so returning to it suggests that it will -- repeat: will -- break lower. Eventually. Meanwhile, price remains in the 2273.00 interim high's orbit, which keeps open the door to retesting it. But that door must be entered almost immediately to avoid oversold RSIs at 2243.00 sucking price down into a multi-session pullback targeting 2215.00 and 2205.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2258.50 would be likely to trigger the 2256.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2253.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2244.25 would be likely to trigger the 2246.75 bias-down signal.

Late surge holds test of its target. A credible recovery would have been obviously underway much sooner, rather than later. Fluctuating in a wide 5-point range around the 2251.00 opening print, and yesterday's 2252.00 cash session close, did not resolve during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And, then, suddenly... it did resolve. Up. Sharply and relentlessly, until piercing the 2264.00 bias-up target by 1 tick. Consolidating since then down to 2258.75 missed two chances at a deeper retracement back to the 2256.75 bias-up signal. Now the 2264.00 bias-up target is being exceeded, despite it having held its test through 10:15 -- which is perfectly acceptable since this remains a bias-up environment. The next higher objective is 2270.00 so long as 2265.50 holds tests as support.. Yesterday's 2272.50 high had stopped pessimistically short of touching Tuesday's 2273.00 high, where somewhat overbought RSIs all but require a retest. So does yesterday's 2243.00 low, eventually.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2271.75 2267.00 ...would target  2276.75  2272.00 Bias-down: under  2265.00  2260.25 ...would target 2259.00  2254.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today's post-market Wrap will be held a half-hour early, beginning at 3:33pm ET. This morning's rally had extended through its 2264.00 bias-up target to attack 2268.00. Failing to hold the 2265.50 pullback limit prevented extending to the next higher objective at 2270.00. Instead, a pullback into the noon hour has twice tested this afternoon's 2260.25 bias-down signal. And the signal's support held. It's being retested now. Recovering 2264.00 would start to target a retest of this morning's high. Extending to 2270.00 need not be delayed by the 2267.00 bias-up signal defining the window's upper-end. Back under 2261.25 (being tested now) could launch "no-bias trending," probing under the 2060.25 bias-down signal despite this being a no-bias environment. Its recovery would be required, but meanwhile there would be room down to the 2254.25 bias-down target.

Thursday afternoon's 2260.25 was ultimately attacked to within 1 tick. Just coming to within 3 ticks is sufficient to neutralize the objective. Potential to also retrace the 1:20 2263.25 print remains intact, but probably within the context of rallying back to and through Thursday morning's 2267.75 high. Meanwhile, nothing prevents probing fresh lows overnight, or Friday morning, before the passively bullish WedEX becomes influential. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2268.75 2264.00 ...would target  2274.75  2270.00 Bias-down: under  2259.75  2255.00 ...would target 2253.75  2249.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.