Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 12-22-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. PROGRAMMING NOTE: TODAY'S PRE-MARKET TOUR WILL BEGIN 15 MINUTES LATE AT 9:10 AM ET.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... You thought Tuesday's back-and-forth was interminable? Wednesday's narrow ranging was insufferable. The open's surge to 2268.00 was reversed quickly down to the pattern's 2264.00 sell signal, which then defined the session's lower-end. Its vulnerability was to the downside and to test 2260.50. Finally breaking lower upon coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close did fulfill the test down to 2259.75 after the close. The drop neutralized lower attractions at Tuesday's oversold RSIs from 2262.25 and the gap back to Monday's 2260.00 futures close. Overnight action's new info... Only the context of weak-handed sponsorship prohibited considering a hold-short. It was otherwise compelling, despite having fulfilled the 2260.50 downside objective. More relevant is the timing, and the lack of time to react off the target instead of closing at it. This often extends the leg, and it did last night, dipping as deeply as 2255.50. But bouncing since midnight eventually touched 2260.50, which is now trying to hold its reaction down to 2257.50. If, then... Probing overnight beyond yesterday's intraday range should be either maintained or else rejected. In either case, actual trending this morning is likely. Maybe only this morning, if probably only this morning, considering the challenge posed by evaporating volume. Opening within yesterday's range -- and preferably above 2262.00 -- could isolate the probe under it to the overnight. Alternatively, testing the 2257.50 bias-down signal would either hold and react up, or else break and trend down. The upside reward is to probe new highs above 2273.00. The downside reward could be 2249.50 and lower.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2262.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2264.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2260.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2257.50 bias-down signal.

Opening plunge not rejected, but also not extended. Retesting the 2260.25 overnight recovery's high had reacted down to greet the open at 2258.50. That was not isolating the probe under yesterday's low, which was the least bullish of the bullish scenarios. The only overt bullish scenario remaining would be to hold the 2257.50 bias-down signal's test. The post-open plunge to and through the overnight low down to 2254.00 didn't make that easy. Or possible. Ultimately, 2257.50 didn't hold its test. And it also didn't not hold its test. It was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, and also at 10:30 when the grace period lapsed. This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-down, and not no-bias. noN-bias is still the least bullish scenario, but not necessarily bearish. Back under 2255.75 would start to signal the break extending, anyway. Further downside would be attracted to 2252.25, 2249.50, and possibly lower. Exiting the bias environment back above 2260.50 and preferably 2262.00 would be bullish.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2260.25 2256.00 ...would target  2264.75  2260.50 Bias-down: under  2254.75  2250.50 ...would target  2249.50  2245.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Trending requirement satisfied. Overnight action as compared to yesterday's intraday action had made this morning likely to trend. Either the probe under yesterday's lows would be maintained and extend, or it would be rejected and reversed. It wasn't rejected. Also, clean bias-down didn't trigger at 10:15. And bias-down still hadn't triggered at 10:30. But that wasn't necessarily bullish, and the drop extended to this morning's 2252.25 bias-down target. 2252.25 was overlapped while being pierced by 3 ticks and never broke lower. The noon hour bounced, but only to within 3 ticks of this afternoon's 2256.00 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. Resuming the decline would have room down to its 2250.50 bias-down signal through 2:30 -- under 2249.50 would suggest 2243.00 is also in-play. Otherwise, recovering above 2256.00 as the bias environment starts lapsing would target fresh post-open highs, like 2262.00 or higher.

Thursday afternoon's no-bias environment had probed 2 points above its 2256.00 bias-up signal. This was no-bias trending that required being retraced, at least to the signal, if not also to its 2255.00 1:20 print. It was reversed down to 2253.00. 2253.00 was also the upper-end of a shallow consolidation at session lows. Its support is at least obligatory, and it did produce a reaction up to 2256.00. But until also recovering the 2258.00 high, the 2253.00 support is only obligatory, and the bounce only temporary. Not immediately recovering 2258.00 Friday would target fresh lows at 2249.50. Trending is difficult in a low-volume environment, and when participation is evaporating at an exponential pace because of the impending three days of illiquidity. Trending that does get started in this environment is difficult to stop during a timing window, let alone to reverse -- especially during the same timing window. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2263.00 2259.00 ...would target  2268.00  2264.00 Bias-down: under  2257.25 2253.25 ...would target  2252.00  2248.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.