MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2112.50
2104.50
...would target 2118.25
2110.25
Bias-down: under 2104.00
2094.00
...would target 2096.75
2088.75
Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s gap up extended to probe nearly 7 points above Wednesday''s 2099.75 FOMC reaction peak. The post-open rally extended through the noon hour. No higher high printed through the afternoon''s bias environment, which warned of impending weakness, since the session was already an uptrending Friday. A sell signal triggered under 2104.25 and bottomed 5 ticks short of its potential to 2096.00, still closing back under Wednesday''s high.

Overnight action''s new info...
Sunday night''s opening 5 minutes surged 6 points to 2106.00. The balance of the night drifted back down to 2100.00, and then dropped sharply to attack 2095.00 and 2094.00, and now also 2093.00. Each attack reacted up to 2097.50. The latest bounce is retesting it, too -- and then some, up to 2098.25.

If, then...
Buyers gained no traction Friday, so gapping up is the only reliable path to resuming the rally today. That seems unlikely with a flat open currently indicated. There being a weekend in between, probing above Friday''s high anyway would get a benefit of the doubt. But nothing would marginalize sellers, and a fresh high would be vulnerable to reversing back down. Meanwhile, not rallying out of this morning''s open would be likely to resume the slide back to Thursday''s "lower prior highs."

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2102.50 would be likely at least to test the 2104.50 bias-up signal, but exiting the open above Friday''s 2106.75 high is needed to make the bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Similarly, exiting the open under 2096.00 would be likely at least to test the 2094.00 bias-down signal, but under 2092.00 at 9:45 would make the bias-down signal likely to trigger.

Just enough buying pressure to hold-off sellers.

The recovery from overnight lows had attacked 2100.00 before the open. Fresh highs through the open up to 2101.75 prevented the decline from resuming immediately, which made the decline less likely to resume, at all.

The fresh highs soon extended to 2106.00, further undermining sellers. Higher highs were printing at 10:15, cleanly triggering the 2104.50 bias-up signal. 

2104.50 is still being tested while trying to hold above 2103.00. Back under 2102.00 would start to suggest the bias-up may be invalidated through 11:30. Meanwhile, the 2110.25 bias-up target is in-play.

Probing fresh highs this morning would still be vulnerable to reversing back into the range, if not also back under last night''s lows. But the bias-up otherwise remains in-play.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2113.00
2105.25
...would target 2118.00
2110.25
Bias-down: under 2107.50
2099.75
...would target 2101.25
2093.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday and extending through 1.0855 resistance all but ensures also retesting last Wednesday''s "flash crash" extreme, presumably to 1.1075 so long as Tuesday''s close doesn''t settle back under 1.0855.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday''s weaker open nonetheless recovered into positive territory, still targeting 1197.00, although closing back under Monday''s 1181.20 post-open low would trigger a corrective dip, first.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down slightly Monday didn''t extend, but its recovery only ranged narrowly around unchanged. Any deeper pullback would likely test support down to "lower prior highs" at.16.45-16.60.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially probing slightly higher highs Monday morning up to 164-16 left potential oustanding up to 164-28. A dip into negative territroy was recovered to range narrowly around unchanged through the afternoon. Closing back under 163-02 would signal a deeper correction underway.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
I announced in the chaRTroom at noon that retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of Monday''s opening dip back up through 46.60-46.75 -- instead of extending down to reject Friday''s bounce -- was suggesting higher highs in-play. My objective is 49.55 so long as 46.60 now holds as support.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday''s dip fill the gap back to Thursday''s close and to test 2.77 support was then gapped down Monday to fill a week-old gap back down to 2.71. That must be the pullback''s end to avoid fresh lows that might even become a new downleg. The accumulative pattern is remains intact, but its timing needs to rally through Tuesday to greet this week''s EIA report from a position of strength.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2109.75
2102.00
...would target 2116.25
2108.50
Bias-down: under 2100.25
2092.50
...would target 2093.00
2085.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.