THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2107.50
2098.75
...would target 2112.75
2104.00
Bias-down: under 2102.50
2093.75
...would target 2096.25
2087.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP, EXCEEDED BIAS-UP TARGET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Gapping up above Tuesday''s 2076.75 high (basis Sep) wasted no time extending higher Wednesday to exceed the bias-up target. Renewing the bias-up signal next targeted 2092.00, which was met by late-morning. Then Greece news triggered a spike up to 2100.00, and the balance of the session ranged narrowly back to 2095.00. Buyers gained no traction for the effort, since both the bias environment exit and final hour entry were within the noon hour''s range.

Overnight action''s new info...
Yesterday afternoon''s narrow 2095.00-2100.00 5-point range has persisted through the night..

If, then...
Is the market walking on eggshells awaiting Greece''s next phase? Apparently. No other headline has its presence or its consequence, and things are happening. Just keep in mind that the first break from an extended narrowing range tends often to be false. This 5-point range is certainly extended, but night quite narrowing. Also, having contained the prior afternoon''s three timing windows within the same range, this morning''s timing windows can be contained if the open isn''t trending.

First Trade...
[The front-month rolls forward from Jun to Sep at this morning''s open] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2098.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2090.75 would be likely to trigger the 2093.75 bias-down signal.

Pre-open firming, post-open surge, post-surge plunge.

The open avoided signaling that the range-bound action would persist. Firming to fresh highs into the open enabled a surge to test the 2104.00 bias-up target. Its reaction down to 2101.50 was recovered to fresh highs at 2106.75.

Bias-up was renewed, putting into play a renewed target at 2110.00. And there''s no reason to touch 2110.00 other than to confirm yesterday''s breakout targeting new highs.

But beware the headlines.

Several minutes after violating a pullback limit at 2105.25, the IMF was described as differing from the Greece deal. That triggered a spike down to 2100.00 and 2097.75. This being a bias-up environment, the 2098.75 bias-up signal should define the range''s lower-end if tested.

Reacting back up above 2101.50 is trying to signal the dip is done, and momentum is reversing up. Just holding above 2099.25-2100.00 keeps sellers from regaining traction. But since there has been no fresh high since before 10:15, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under 2104.00 would be difficult to resume rallying again today.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2112.50
2104.25
...would target 2118.00
2110.00
Bias-down: under 2104.50
2096.50
...would target 2099.25
2091.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday''s fresh high close was not above last week''s intraday high, disqualifying it from fulfilling the outstanding third higher close. Thursday''s open gapped down and extended lower. Back above 1.1285 would signal the rally had resumed.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing 1185.30 at Wednesday''s close -- instead of closing under it -- made 1175.00 the new signal that momentum has reversed down. But Thursday''s plunge testing 1175.00 does at least confirm the recent bounce had failed. Closing under it would next target 1158.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday''s reaction down to a fresh low tried recovering to unchanged, but might not have prevented sellers from gaining traction. Nevertheless, there remains potential for bouncing back into the 16.15-16.35 range.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday''s reaction to 8:30''s econ reports surged to test 149-08 resistance. closing above it would signal a bigger rally underway. A pullback needed to hold 148-23 as support, which it did, before recovering to fresh session highs.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday''s surge above 60.80 didn''t resume Thursday morning, instead testing the 60.30 pullback limit which must hold through the close to maintain the rally''s momentum.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday''s EIA report from a position of strength didn''t equate to resuming the rally, and there was no negative knee-jerk reaction to absorb. But the probe above 2.90 did react back down to test Wednesday''s 2.82 low. Regardless, Wednesday''s third higher close wasn''t rejected, so the trend remains intact.