Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s gap down was eventually retraced to fill the gap back to Thursday''s 1986.00 close. But Thursday''s late 42-point surge (which had been preceded by a 42-point plunge) never resumed. Thursday afternoon''s sellers had gained traction, but their influence on Friday''s session was limited to preventing the recovery from extending. Ranging sideways all day ended by surging back up to and through 1986.00 into and out of the cash session close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Sunday night''s open immediately plunged about 30 points to 1959.25. Flat-to-higher ranging since then -- through China''s trading and through Europe''s opens -- firmed back up to 1973.00 and 1977.25. A reaction down to 1965.25 has largely recovered.

If, then...
Friday afternoon was vulnerable already to plunging back to Thursday''s 1944.00 low. Sunday night''s immediate plunge doesn''t ensure exploiting that vulnerability, not any deeper than already retracing it by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} to attack 1959.00. Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment can quickly become a sentiment extreme -- so, not extending down quickly this morning can instead begin a recovery back up through last week''s highs.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1976.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 1970.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1964.25 would be likely to trigger the 1970.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1960.50 would be unlikely to recover the 1963.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal.

Bias-down target met, held, reacted, and nearly retraced.

The open firmed just enough to pierce the pre-open recovery high by 2 ticks up to 1977.75. Then price reversed down sharply to 1962.25.

The 1963.25 bias-down signal had been met and it was holding as support at 10:15, so the bias-down signal did not renew. And as is often the case, the decline ceased.

And as is occasionally the case, the decline was retraced. The 1970.00 bias-down signal was probed to also test 1976.25. Recall from the First Trade blog post that recovering 1976.25 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility could have made bias-down obsolete. Instead, it was tested during a bias-down environment. And its resistance has reacted down.

Being a bias-down environment, probing back above the bias-down signal requires being retraced. Often, the 10:15 print is retraced, too -- that''s 1966.25. In fact, a reaction down from 1976.25 is now probing under 1970.00 to within 2 ticks of 1966.25.

Back above 1972.00 would target fresh post-open highs at 1979.25 or 1980.75. Any higher would target 1996.00-2000.00. Otherwise, the attraction remains alive back down to Thursday''s 1944.00 low -- and to support along the way at 1960.50 and 1953.50.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1985.25
1982.00
...would target 1989.25
1986.00
Bias-down: under 1977.00
1973.75
...would target 1970.25
1967.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrow ranging Monday continued to hold the maximum pullback limit that at least allows an accumulative pattern to form. But the behaving like an inside day does essentially require the rally to resume without much further delay if a deeper drop will be avoided.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday''s initial weakness still held the 1125.70 pullback limit. The gap back to Friday''s 1133.00 close was filled but not recovered, so resuming the rally Tuesday all but requires launching earlier.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday and Friday''s test of the 14.55 bounce limit held, still needing to fill the gap back down to last Wednesday''s 14.35 opening gap before a recovery would be credible for extending higher.

30-year Treasury DecContract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday''s early probe above 155-24 was the buy signal''s third attempt to trigger. It wasn''t the most substantial attempt, but its rejection was the most substantial reaction down, attacking last week''s 154-00 low. The decline is on the precipice of resuming if a rally isn''t underway through Tuesday''s close.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Coming to within 20 cents of my 37.55 target and then hovering sideways for the next session still does not qualify as accumulation. So, the three-day surge from there isn''t any more durable just because it has recovered $11, but that''s still difficult momentum to retrace. And now it has potential to test 50.10 before a substantial reaction down might form.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night and extending lower tested last week''s lows around 2.65 without closing lower. That could qualify as the basis for a durable bottom, leaving no unfinished business below if a rally were to begin Tuesday.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1978.25
1975.00
...would target 1984.00
1980.75
Bias-down: under 1965.25
1962.00
...would target 1957.25
1954.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.