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Through the prior close... Sunday night's 1938.25 low had probed under Friday's low before reversing well into positive territory. Monday's gap up extended higher to probe above Friday's intraday highs up to 1969.00. When the bias environment lapsed at 11:30, so did the bullish WedEX influence, unable to prevent a noon hour slide to 1944.25. The afternoon rallied back to 1961.25, but didn't gain traction for the effort. Overnight action's new info... Globex firmed a little further to 1965.00 before retracing to 1958.00. Sideways ranging had dipped back to its lower-end into Europe's opens. The bottom literally dropped out as a three-hour plunge fell to 1928.25. If, then... There's no bullish reason to be retesting the same 1945.00 pullback limit that had stemmed Thursday night's plunge. It also trapped Friday's late low, and Monday's noon hour low, both being intraday tests. It's a different challenge to gap down under 1945.00. And gapping under 1938.00 would break the "lower prior highs" from which 1945.00 is derived. The next lower attraction would be 1918.00; under 1915.00 would target 1899.00. It's possible this sell-off has become exacerbated ahead of this evening's Yom Kippur observance, and its afternoon liquidity drain. Exiting the open above 1949.00 would suggest the selling has been limited to overnight action, opening the door to revisit last week's highs. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 1945.00 would be the best chance at recovering the 1948.00 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.

Open's firming only delayed the inevitable. A morning rally had to be obvious immediately post-open. Firming 2-3 points immediately from the 1931.00 open actually wasn't too shallow. And its reaction down to 1928.00 recovered even more immediately to a higher high. But rallying immediately should at least rally eventually, and there were no more bites left at that apple. Another dip's recovery up to 1935.75 got a benefit of the doubt so long as its tight pullback limit held, which of course it did not. Price action since then has slid relentlessly, now testing 1920.50 on simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs. And why not? The next lower objective under 1938.00 remains 1918.00 -- with room for noise around it beginning at 1919.00 and stretching down to 1916.50. It's still possible this selling pressure is artificially exacerbated by the fast-approaching Yom Kippur illiquidity. We'll monitor that area for any bottoming and reversal setups, which could be very productive through the balance of the session. But under 1915.00 would target 1899.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1942.75 1931.50 ...would target  1949.25  1938.00 Bias-down: under  1934.00  1922.75 ...would target  1929.25  1918.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Attraction below, repellent above. [Click here for tomorrow's Econ Calendar] The bias environment's 16-point slide down to 1920.50 has been retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} up to 1930.00. That's the noon hour's high, so far. That bounce peaked early in the noon hour, reacting down since then to 1924.00, so 1930.00 is the noon hour's high, probably. I'm making a big deal about 1930.00 being -- or, not being -- the noon hour's high, because it might determine probing fresh session lows today. Just attacking the noon hour high above 1928.75 would start to target 1931.50, this afternoon's bias-up signal. Triggering it could marginalize sellers for the delay. Regardless, the pattern since this morning's low is not accumulative. So, any rally it might launch would be likely to fail. Extending down this afternoon to fulfill the 1918.00 objective could at least coincide with the end of artificial pre-Yom Kippur selling pressure. Bouncing, first, would be equally suspicious.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Friday's reaction down had extended Monday to form a breakout under uptrending support. Extending lower overnight to gap down Tuesday then also extended down intraday. At least an eventual third lower close is required before the pattern can begin bottoming. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Modest firming overnight was rejected sharply into and out of Tuesday's open to test 1120.50. The pullback limit was violated, so back above 1134.00 is needed to begin signaling the pullback has ended. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down sharply Tuesday from Monday's overlap of its 15.10 pullback limit spent the day ranging narrowly around 14.65. There is no buy signal. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday's pullback to support at 153-12 reacted up sharply to 154-17 Tuesday in a flight-to-quality which extended as stocks fell apart to probe Friday's high above 156-00. The gap back to Monday's close should be filled before a durable rally can begin. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Gapping down Tuesday to 45.65 failed to confirm Monday's close above 45.65. Only ranging narrowly prevented any signal from triggering, but the upside continues to be suspect. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Still ranging narrowly under prior lows Tuesday prevents a bottoming pattern from yet forming.

The next lower objective under 1938.00 was 1918.00. Tuesday's gap down to 1931.00 fluctuated between 1928.50-1936.00 before trending down to the 1918.00 objective. The balance of the afternoon firmed, before a late-afternoon surge up to 1935.00. That action developed exclusively under last week's lows. And it satisfied the next lower target's selling pressure. While closing flat to higher despite the intraday post-open drop. It's not a buy signal, but it undermines the downside momentum. Gapping up Wednesday -- at least above 1941.00 but probably above 1945.00 -- would be attracted higher intraday. Filling the gap(s) at Monday's 1957.00 and 1963.00 close(s) would be natural, with or without normal volume. Meanwhile, having trended up into the close, gapping down under Tuesday afternoon's 1918.00 low could form a session-long decline. Tuesday's "lower prior highs" at 1924.00-1927.00 would try to argue otherwise. Not gapping up would be difficult to trend at all until late-afternoon. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzxmtm This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1949.50 1938.25 ...would target  1955.75  1944.75 Bias-down: under  1935.00  1924.00 ...would target  1927.75  1916.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.