Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday night's plunge under its intraday range down to 1910.50 had been reversed to probe above Tuesday's highs up to 1941.75. Wednesday's intraday action was contained almost entirely within Tuesday's range. But that didn't prevent its swings from being wide, peaking at 1938.50 and then dropping to 1920.50. It was only the late-afternoon window when volatility began to subside. Overnight action's new info... Similar to Tuesday night, but not -- especially the sequence. Trending down 19 points probed under Wednesday afternoon's low to 1917.00, to within 2 ticks of the bias-down target. It was recovered to probe above 5 ticks above Wednesday afternoon's 1935.00 high. Just like Tuesday night, but in reverse... Oh, wait, then the market began a 28-point slide to fresh lows at 1907.50. If, then... Overnight action followed my prescription I had discussed yesterday -- probing fresh lows didn't have to extend, but was unlikely to extend, and likelier to recover into a rally. My treatment didn't apply to reversing the recovery back down to probe even lower lows, substantially lower lows at that. Any bounce short of 19240.00 or 1927.25 would remain vulnerable to reversing back down. Bouncing back only to the range's 1920.50 lower-end would more likely refuel a much deeper drop, even if that bounce were entirely pre-open. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1918.00 would be likely also to recover the 1916.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 1912.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal at 10:15.

Quickly fulfilled objectives can inhibit new sponsorship. The template we discussed during the pre-market Tour had indicated the 1908.00-1914.00 consolidation was not a bottom. Probing several points under its low was likely. A bigger picture objective had determined already that the next lower objective under 1918.00 was 1899.00. Back above 1916.25 would have signaled a corrective bounce, but 1899.00 was in-play. The open did blip-up to 1916.25. But only to touch it, expending literally as much buying pressure as was possible to gain without yet gaining traction for the effort. Its reaction down was relentless until touching 1092.50. Reacting up to 1909.75 has resolved down to within 1 tick of 1899.00. The resumed downleg has formed a Falling Wedge, with room for noise back up to the 1906.00 area. Having plunged into the wedge, its resolution may plunge again. The next lower objective under 1899.00 is 1884.50. Regardless, containing a low during this morning's bias environment -- recovering this afternoon without probing lower -- would likely form a durable bottom. Still probing lower lows this afternoon would suggest a difficult weekend ahead.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1922.00 1910.75 ...would target  1928.50  1917.25 Bias-down: under  1912.25  1901.00 ...would target  1907.00  1895.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Target met and held at the low. So far. This morning's test of 1989.00 was exceeded only by 3 ticks. Just attacking it to within 3 ticks would have sufficed. Its reaction up through the noon hour reached 1914.00. Such strong hands must be secure in their bullishness. Or, was that just a knee-jerk reaction to fulfilling so much selling pressure so quickly? The probe above this afternoon's 1910.75 bias-up signal avoided triggering. And its reaction down has tested 1902.00. So long as the next lower objective is contained within the first available timing window, new sponsorship is difficult to attract. That increases the potential for a bottom to form. So, breaking under 1918.00 through a relevant timing window put into play 1898.00, and both conditions were triggered and met this morning. None of which says the drop has bottomed or that the trend has reversed up. But the first rule of getting out of a hole is to stop digging. So, there's that.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Thursday's gap up extended a little higher before reversing back down through the balance of the session, albeit maintaining positive territory. An eventual third lower close in the pattern remains outstanding, and a corrective bounce now may have run its course. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The two prior sessions did not form a stable base, but that didn't prevent Thursday's oversized reaction that probed above the rally's 1141.50 target to almost 1156.50. Back under 1147.00 would stat to target 1138.70. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Breaking higher during Thursday afternoon in delayed sympathy with Gold stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday's 15.20 close. That's potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday's shallow pullback didn't launched an overnight rally as a flight-to-safety triggered a gap up Thursday to test 157-04 resistance up to 157-16. Gapping down Friday could form an Island -- a vulnerability if stocks extend Thursday afternoon's recovery. But holding 156-04 would keep alive the upside momentum. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Fresh lows for the resumed decline were printed Thursday, down to 43.70 during the afternoon, still likely to continue deteriorating. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday's EIA report was not being greeted from a position of strength, or from weakness. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down under the two-day consolidation wasn't required, but it would be likely to recover. The news reaction was down, and it did recover back into the range. Almost any higher high Friday would be credible for extending intraday.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1942.25 1931.00 ...would target  1947.50 1936.25 Bias-down: under  1924.25  1913.00 ...would target  1918.50  1907.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

[Click here for the Morning Bias] Thursday afternoon's buyers gained traction for their efforts, and their reward should be to spend the next morning trending higher. Sometimes that's delayed. But Thursday afternoon's recovery retraced far enough into the prior two sessions' range at 1924.50 -- and without reacting down to close back under the range's 1918.00 lower-end -- that Thursday afternoon's recovery should extend higher Friday morning. Actually closing above 1924.50 would have been optimal. Having trended up into Thursday's close, gapping down Friday under its 1902.00 bias environment low would instead trigger a session-long decline. Being a Friday, the morning's bias tends to persist well through the noon hour, in whichever direction. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxzpkt

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc