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CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping up Wednesday and extending higher to 1991.00 had indicated that strong-handed buyers were taking control after Tuesday's corrective session. That didn't prevent the open's rally from being retraced back to unchanged at 1967.50, but it did indicate that action was counter-trend. In fact, consolidating after filling the gap back to Tuesday's close was followed by another rally leg back into the morning's highs. Another reaction down retraced the afternoon's no-bias trending, and was then recovered into the close, fulfilling an outstanding target at 1988.75. Overnight action's new info... Yesterday afternoon's late recovery has not extended higher. Instead, yesterday's no-bias trending was retraced again, and then lower to 1971.00. Now another bounce is testing 1982.00. If, then... Buyers didn't gain traction for yesterday's efforts, so extending the rally this morning requires gapping up. At least, a durable rally requires gapping up. Probing positive territory from a weaker open could still be productive before failing -- there are a lot of news and Fed speakers scheduled, and FOMC Minutes this afternoon. Gapping up and extending higher could retest the FOMC high today or tomorrow. As for gapping down, there is no greater likelihood between ranging narrowly or trending down. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1981.00-1982.00 will likely avoid triggering the 1979.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1977.00 would likely trigger bias-down.

Offsetting test above is in-play. The overnight dip wasn't recovered entirely before the open. The open's fluctuations still touched the 1979.00 bias-down signal. It held through 10:15, triggering no-bias, and putting into play an offsetting test of the 1990.00 bias-up signal. So, there's high confidence in the path leading to 1990.00. The gap back to yesterday's ~1988.00 close should be filled anyway, so its test is likely to be probed by a couple of points. A runaway rally isn't likely, although an optimistic reaction to this afternoon's FOMC Minutes is possible -- doomed to failure, but possible. Already a fresh post-open high has touched 1985.75. That was before 10:15, and without probing any higher, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 1997.00bias-down would invalidate the upside objectives. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here: delete

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1999.25 1990.75 ...would target  2004.25  1996.00 Bias-down: under  1989.25  1981.00 ...would target  1984.50  1976.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Upside attraction neutralized, FOMC catalyst awaited. Holding the open's test of this morning's 1979.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 1990.00 bias-up signal. Surging into and out of noon attacked 1990.00to within 3 ticks, neutralizing its attraction. It didn't take long for a reaction down to 1984.50. Partly from having satisfied buyers, and partly from posturing defensively ahead of this afternoon's FOMC news. A 4-point bounce resolved down, too, this time attacking 1980.00. Perhaps a little more defensiveness with the 30-year auction coming. Now another bounce is testing 1988.00. FOMC news is at the top of the hour. Having avoided positive territory for this long, a rally could extend more durably. Regardless, there is no requirement to react in either direction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) There is no active signal, so Thursday's probe above 1.1265 resistance doesn't have any predictive value, regardless of it also extending intraday to probe last Friday's 1.1330 high.. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Having filled the gap Wednesday back to the 2-1/2 week old close, and then closing flat-to-positive after reacting into negative territory, Thursday's gap down was not expected to extend lower. In fact, it was retraced entirely back up to Wednesday's "higher prior lows" as resistance. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Extending higher to 16.10 through Wednesday never altered the pattern to raise its pullback limit any higher than 15.55. Thursday's gap down had probed under it to 15.37, but still overlapping it keeps alive the potential for recovering the gap down and then resuming the rally. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) More flat ranging ahead  Thursday's auction and FOMC Minutes came and went, without budging beyond its recent narrow range supported by the 157-24 sell signal. The door remains open to fill the gap back up to 158-24 before a more convincing break under the 157-24 and 156-16 sell signals. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Not confirming Tuesday's breakout Wednesday had not reversed the trend down, but Thursday only firmed back to Wednesday's high, aided by bullish comments from OPEC about future demand. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Greeting Thursday's EIA report from neither a position of strength nor of weakness -- mostly the latter -- enabled a favorable reaction that returned back up to Wednesday's highs. Already having neutralized the gap above at 2.51, extending through it could target a higher gap outstanding at 2.67.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2019.00 2011.00 ...would target  2024.00  2016.00 Bias-down: under  2007.00 1999.50 ...would target  2002.00 1994.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Is this leg coming to an end? Its 2011.75 objective was attacked to within 3 ticks Thursday afternoon. That was last month's high, printed during Fed Chair Yellen's press conference. The attraction back up to it was put into play earlier this week by probing the lower-end of that session. A late reaction down still managed to close above 2000.00 to keep alive potential for extending higher Friday. Thursday afternoon's buyers gained traction, which also keeps alive that upside potential. None of which prevents initially dipping overnight, or even through the open. So long as sellers don't retake control anyway Friday, the retest of 2011.75 should visit 2019.00. Retesting 2011.75-2019.00 early enough could  reverse down sharply into the weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjvsbj

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:the ilinc room only...   non-xp ilinc