Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping up to 1881.00 had extended higher through the noon hour to attack 1900.00. That was pessimistically short of Friday's prior highs. Dipping to 1888.00 was recovered only to 1897.25 before the close, and only momentarily as 1888.00 was retraced through the futures close... before AAPL's earnings. Overnight action's new info... Reaction to AAPL's earnings triggered a gap down to 1885.00 that extended immediately to attack 1881.00. Price action since then has ranged choppily sideways -- testing 1890.00 above and 1879.00 below --  all centered around 1885.00. Currently a bounce is testing 1887.50. If, then... With no trending effort having been made yesterday afternoon, it's not surprising that no traction was gained either way. So, gapping open beyond the afternoon's range can be the only way to launch trending for the morning. Both gapping open AND extending through the open. Gapping but NOT extending would more likely return into the range. That setup can at least resemble trending, attracting price back to yesterday's highs. Trending beyond the range this morning is more difficult with this afternoon's FOMC policy statement looming ahead. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1885.00 would be likely to trigger the 1887.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1892.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Opening recovery attempt fails.. Probing above the 1890.00 overnight highs pre-open had reacted down post-open to touch the 1887.50 bias-down signal. It reaction up probed fresh highs up to 1894.25. And held. The 1887.50 bias-down signal was probed in reaction to the 10:00 econ report. That extended sharply to test the 1881.00 bias-down target by 10:15. And held. This is a bias-down environment whose target has been met. Usually, that establishes the morning's floor. But not renewing the bias-down by 10:15 doesn't prevent probing under its target after 10:15. This is, after all, a bias-down environment. Meanwhile, retesting 1881.00 has produced a bounce up to 1889.50. That's above the 1887.50 bias-down signal, which should define the the bias environment's upper-end, until approaching its 11:30 exit.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1912.50 1905.50 ...would target  1918.50  1911.50 Bias-down: under  1906.50  1899.50 ...would target  1900.25  1893.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Surging into the noon hour ahead of the news. When this morning's bias environment was finally in view of lapsing, its 1987.50 bias-down signal finally stopped restraining a recovery. Its break extended up through prior highs to test 1910.00 into the noon hour. A pullback to the 1900.00 prior highs has prevented triggering the 1905.50 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. Exceeding 1905.50 through 1:30 would invalidate the no-bias. Probing above it later would be required to retrace. Meanwhile, the FOMC policy statement is a half-hour away. Volatility is likely to explode in reaction. Testing 1913.00 before reversing down would be likelier than simply trending down, while trending up through 1913.00 to 1924.00 is possible.

Wednesday's last half-hour repeatedly overapped 1873.00-1874.75. This was the next lower objective under 1881.00. Its test was probed momentarily down to 1865.00 but that snapped back up to 1873.00-1874.75. Ranging around it encompassed 1969.00-1978.00. All of that ranging, for all of the final hour. Without closing lower.  No lower objective was put into play, so no lower lows are required, so rallying overnight into a Thursday morning rally is possible. But rallying overnight is the only path to a Thursday morning rally, since Wednesday afternoon's drop gained traction for its efforts. Rallying just a little to 1882.00 and 1887.50 could still resolve down Thursday morning. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1889.00 1882.00 ...would target  1894.50  1887.50 Bias-down: under  1875.25  1868.25 ...would target  1869.75  1862.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.