Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Plunging overnight to probe the 1805.00 3-week old lows by 3 points had reversed up partially through Thursday's open to attack 1834.50 to within 1 point. The balance of the bias environment was spent falling back down toward the lows at 1807.50. A modest (relatively) bounce to 1822.00 was retraced to 1805.00 at the afternoon's bias environment exit, a virtual air pocket below it. Oil suddenly surged and so the break was reversed up to 1834.50 before the close. Overnight action's new info... Probing slightly higher to 1837.00 was quickly reversed back down to attack 1822.00. Already recovering into Europe's opens, higher highs have now extended up to 1847.50. If, then... Yesterday's late recovery had initially stopped pessimistically short of touching the morning's high, which suggested its actual recovery would almost literally explode higher on the way to at least 1850.00. It didn't, which was more pessimism (potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective) but sellers retained control. Even if the overnight extension were to touch 1850.00, sellers can retain control if post-open action doesn't still extend higher. Yesterday's late break lower was victim of the impending weekend illiquidity -- 3-day weekend, no less -- that makes sponsorship vulnerable. Gapping up is itself always vulnerable, too. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1845.50 would be unlikely to reverse back under the 1841.25 bias-up target through 10:15, and likely to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 1850.25. Exiting the open under 1838.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target long enough to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the opeen under 1829.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 1834.50 bias-up signal.

Sellers fail to retain control. The pre-open reaction down from retesting the 1848.00 area extended down through the open. The upper-end of yesterday's range was briefly pierced by a couple of tick in reaction to 10:00's econ report. That's essentially also this morning's 1834.50 bias-up signal, which ultimately triggered at 10:15. The 1041.25 bias-up target was attacked into 10:15, but not exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. No matter, this is still a bias-up environment. While that setup often holds as resistance for the morning, the open's 1845.50 high is now being retested. Triggering bias-up doesn't necessarily reflect buyers regaining control when they've met and held a test of the bias-up target. It doesn't marginalize sellers, although they've lost control. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under its 1834.50 bias-up signal would suggest that sellers are trying to regain control. Exiting the bias environment above the 1845.50 opening high could simply drift higher into the afternoon.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1860.50 1855.50 ...would target  1866.00  1861.25 Bias-down: under  1850.75  1846.00 ...would target 1846.00  1841.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Exiting the afternoon bias environment above all prior intraday timing window highs is extremely difficult to reverse down on Fridays. And it often extends even higher. That was the case this week, as bounce targets into the 1860.00's began to be met. That's a Friday Factor, but so is the lack of credibility for actually extending higher. Weaker volume means weaker hands, so their gaining traction isn't impressive as it would be on any other weekday. If anything, it suggests that sellers are being extra patient, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. An immediate reversal down next week would be credible, but not much and not at all optimal -- not like first testing 1867.00. Its recovery would suggest only a higher starting point to the decline's eventual resumption. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1864.50 1860.00 ...would target  1871.25  1867.00 Bias-down: under  1854.25  1850.00 ...would target 1848.00  1843.50 Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.