Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's open gapped down to attack Friday's 1996.00 lows, which held. But it wasn't much of a test, so the rubber band wasn't stretched enough for a snap back up. But the balance of the session did trend up to 2007.00, retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the gap down. All but one timing window printing a higher high. Overnight action's new info... The reward for holding a test of Friday's low was to fill the gap back to Monday's 2009.50 close, if not also to probe Monday's 2015.00 high. Tuesday's rally extended to 2009.50, where a surge attacked 2012.00. Reactions down under 2006.00 recovered to retest 2009.50, which have reacted down again to 2006.00. If, then... Holding a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement is often "equilibrium." Trending attempts are likely in one direction, and then in the other, each being very convincing before reversing again. Late-afternoon tends to allow a more successful attempt. That template happens to align well with this afternoon's FOMC events, with the policy statement being followed by Yellen's quarterly Q&A. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2012.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2009.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2006.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-open dip retraces to unchanged. Sliding down to 1997.00 had recovered to greet the open at 2000.25, which is 3 ticks above the 1999.50 bias-down signal. Trending straight up from there touched 2008.75, which is 3 ticks short of the 2009.50 bias-up signal. Neither bias signal was touched before 10:15 failed to trigger either, so an offsetting test of the other signal is not in-play. Coming within 3 ticks can neutralize the attraction, anyway.

So, having produced and retraced two convincing trending attempts since yesterday's "equilibrium" close, the morning range may be set.

Overbought RSIs at the high suggest its eventual retest, and potential trending attempt to fresh highs triggered above 2008.00. Meanwhile, back under 2004.75 would signal momentum reversing back down, presumably to retest the open.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2019.50 2009.50 ...would target  2025.50  2015.75 Bias-down: under  2011.25  2001.50 ...would target 2005.50  1995.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

WedEX triggered actively bullish thanks to a single session, not two, which leaves it vulnerable to rejection at Thursday's open. Gapping down under 2006.00 would suggest that Wednesday's new high close was an anomaly. Not gapping down would avoid invaliding the bullish WedEX, but a second consecutive higher close would help to confirm it. It would also confirm Wednesday's breakout, the first fresh high close from a multi-session range. Gapping up would be more helpful, yet, since Wednesday afternoon's buyers didn't gain traction for their efforts. So, gapping up is the only credible path to immediately extending the rally. Each of the setups is vulnerable to non-confirmation, invalidation or inversion. But that's probably not too much of a risk if Wednesday's rally is maintained through Thursday's open. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2033.00 2023.00 ...would target  2038.25  2028.50 Bias-down: under 2017.75  2008.00 ...would target 2011.50 2001.50 Signal status: NO BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.