WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2055.00 2045.50 ...would target  2059.75 2050.50 Bias-down: under  2043.75  2034.50 ...would target 2038.75  2029.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday afternoon's action was essentially the inverse of the morning's attempt to break lower from the two-day range. Recovering and reversing probe under the range which had been triggered by the Brussels terrorists attacks, had extended through the range's upper-end. But that was retraced and extended back into the range. The afternoon's high had fulfilled an objective created by the morning's dip, and the closing dip had fulfilled an objective created by the afternoon's recovery. No traction was gained and no unfinished business was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Actually, the late dip had only essentially fulfilled its objective to within 2 ticks -- and its minimum objective, at that. Never mind, the actual 2037.75 objective was touched at the overnight low. But like the intraday recovery to fresh highs, new buyers haven't been attracted, as price action ranges sideways. If, then... That which doesn't kill the market, puts it on life support? The market is at risk of a downturn for a host of reasons, many of which I elaborated on yesterday here.  One of those reasons is on display overnight in the inability to attract buyers. Sellers have yet to exploit their opposition's weakness, and in their own hesitation is essentially the only bullish argument -- nature abhors a vacuum, and if sellers aren't attracted to the situation soon, then buyers will be sucked into producing another upside surge. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2048.25 would be likely to trigger the 2045.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Not maintaining yesterday's recovery is now followed by retracing its origin. The pre-open slide greeted the open at 2036.50 and then extended further down to 2031.75. Consolidating around the 2034.50 bias-down signal for a half-hour didn't imply any greater strength there. A better example would have been to quickly launch a rally from there, instead of chipping away at its support. But 2034.50 was still being overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the EIA Crude Oil data triggered a blip-up to 2038.50. It blapped-down by 10:30 to isolate itself as only a knee-jerk reaction. But 2034.50 was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. Being noN-bias, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal is not in-play, and neither is a test of the bias-down target. The bias-down signal isn't required to define the range's lower-end. That said, price is often inhibited from trending away from the bias-down signal throughout the noN-bias environment, but trending either way away from it would still be credible because it isn't prohibited. Trending away from the bias-down signal is often retraced. Regardless, nothing about the opening action is bullish. And it's just bearish enough to maintain the bearish scenario.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2048.50  2039.00 ...would target  2054.25  2045.00 Bias-down: under  2038.50 2029.25 ...would target  2032.50  2023.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour entered at lows. SPECIAL NOTE: MARKET WRAP WILL BEGIN AT 3:30PM ET, AND I'LL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS BY THE CLOSE. This morning's noN-bias environment was exited at its 2029.25 bias-down target. The target was never in-play, but it is nevertheless support. And its test has reacted up to test this morning's 2034.50 bias-down signal by 2-3 ticks. It is still resistance, and this is now the noon hour. This is the lower-end of a multi-session range, the relatively narrow range that has been suggesting the rally may be done. Buyers are clearly complacent, but pushing price to the range's lower-end doesn't yet prove sellers are retaking control. There's room up to this afternoon's 2039.00 bias-up signal before suggesting sellers aren't retaking control. This being Wednesday afternoon ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend, not yet breaking the range today would be unlikely to break the range before Monday -- making this the range's lower-end. A break lower would essentially target 2009.00.

This being Wednesday before a 3-day holiday weekend, trending already underway is difficult to stop, let alone to reverse, before next week. This suggests that Tuesday and Wednesday's lows are now resistance. Thursday's open always has a role to play by proxy. Gapping up above 2034.50 would be credible for extending back to the range's upper-end. Otherwise, the drop's potential objective is back down to 2009.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2044.00 2034.50 ...would target  2049.00  2039.75 Bias-down: under  2034.50  2025.25 ...would target 2028.75  2019.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.