Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's opening 15 minutes of volatility elapsed entirely under Monday's 2022.00-2023.00 lows. That's an unstable base to launch a rally, and the bias environment exit didn't recover the 2027.00 prior high. Yellen's dovish remarks nevertheless triggered a surge back to Sunday night's 2039.75 high. And that extended back to last week's 2047.50 high. Overnight action's new info... Extending even higher soon tested the next higher objective at 2051.00. A pullback to 2047.50 had been recovered into Europe's opens, extending quickly up to 2058.25. Consolidating there for a couple of hours then broke higher again, testing 2061.50 before reacting down 3 points. If, then... The whole point to last week's pullback was to correct the rally -- specifically, its break above February's highs -- before resuming the rally to probe last year's highs. The correction's minimum objective was barely attacked to within 3 points Thursday at 2012.25. Its likelier objective at 1980.00 wasn't even threatened. Yet, already new highs are printing for this year. That impatience left behind yesterday's opening dip without actually absorbing or rejecting it, let alone retesting Thursday's opening gap. Regardless of the sudden recovery's degree, it's still fresh, and still vulnerable. Its next higher objectives at 2051.00 and 2056.00 are also this morning's bias-up signal and target, and their renewed bias-up target at 2061.25 is being tested. After expending a lot of impatient buying pressure overnight, what little traction was gained by yesterday afternoon's buyers is at risk of inverting down. If 2061.25's test isn't the start of this leg's end, then doubly-renewing the bias-up would target 2067.00-2068.00. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2054.00 would be unlikely also to exceed the 2056.00 bias-up target or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2059.25 would be likely to renew the bias-up.

Probing fresh highs, if not actually extending. Opening weakness touched the 2056.00 bias-up target as support and reacted back up to fresh highs at 2063.25. A reaction down to 2059.00 remained under pressure through 10:15, holding the 2061.25 renewed bias-up target.

This is still a bias-up environment. A renewed bias-up environment whose target was exceeded through 10:15.

Exceeding the 2061.25 renewed bias-up target through 10:15 would have put into play 2067.00-2068.00, but that was avoided. Also avoided was a break back under the 2056.00 bias-up target. And neither was exceeded by 10:30, which doesn't suggest any sponsorship is available for trending. A buy signal would trigger above 2062.50 (being tested now) targeting 2067.00-2068.00, and under 2059.75 would target 2054.25. Trending to either this morning would be vulnerable to reversing sharply. Not trending this morning would be likely to trend this afternoon.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2070.50 2061.25 ...would target  2076.50  2067.25 Bias-down: under  2060.25  2051.00 ...would target 2053.75  2044.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Well off the high, but still in positive territory. Each probe above 2061.25 this morning was only brief, once touching 2064.50. That one was too much, and it reacted down to fresh post-open lows attacking 2054.25. Extending down during the noon hour is now attacking 2052.00.

Two hours of relentless selling, and 12 points off the high. Seems bearish.

But that's still 1 point above the afternoon's bias-down signal, and 5 points in positive territory.

Bias-down didn't trigger. Maybe it will be probed anyway, which would be "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced. Waiting an hour before probing lower would target 2039.25. Otherwise, back above 2056.25 would start putting into play fresh session highs.

But for a few ticks, Wednesday's 2058.00 open was still being overlapped at Wednesday's close. Exceeding the morning's 2056.00 bias-up target had renewed the bias-up signal, but its 2061.25 renewed bias-up target had been met already and held. That setup had warned of that morning trending attempts would fail. Not that trending wouldn't be attempted, but that it would fail. And it was attempted and it did fail. A lot of selling pressure was expended intraday without triggering a bias-down and without leaving positive territory. That already produced an afternoon bounce, and didn't gain traction for the effort, so extending higher Thursday largely relies on already extending higher overnight. There having been no net post-open improvement Wednesday, and Thursday being the day before March's Employment Situation report, backing-and-filling wouldn't be surprising. Already trending higher Thursday would risk discounting bad payrolls Friday, which could only fulfill expectations but not exceed them. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2070.75 2061.50 ...would target  2076.50  2067..25 Bias-down: under  2060.25  2051.00 ...would target 2053.75  2044.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.